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Ligue 11 Nov 22:45 TRT

Olympique de Marseille×Toulouse FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Olympique de Marseille: 46.0%fair odds 2.18
  • FT X · draw: 26.4%fair odds 3.78
  • FT 2 · Toulouse: 27.6%fair odds 3.62

Double chance

  • 1X · Olympique de Marseille doesn't lose:
    72.4%fair odds 1.38
    X2 · Toulouse doesn't lose:
    54.0%fair odds 1.85
    12 · no draw:
    73.6%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    41.7%fair odds 2.40
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    58.3%fair odds 1.72

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.3%fair odds 1.63
    BTTS No:
    38.7%fair odds 2.58

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.1%fair odds 3.69
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.9%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Olympique de MarseilleToulouse
League tableadvantaged: 8. place 12 pts · 4W 0D 4L 11. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 2L
Last 5 matchesWWWLL1.8 pts/matchDWDWD1.8 pts/match

Goals

Olympique de MarseilleToulouse
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.721.30

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+2.0 puan−4.0 puan

Players

Olympique de MarseilleToulouse
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-4-2
ScorerAmine Gouiri5 goalsCasper Tengstedt5 goals
Most dangerousAmine Gouiriexpected goals 3.6Casper Tengstedtexpected goals 4.6
FinisherAmine Gouiri+1.8 goals vs expectationCasper Tengstedt−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJeffrey de Langeconceded 2.4 goals fewer than expectedGuillaume Restesconceded 1.0 goals more than expected
Most cardsTimothy Weah2 yellow, 1 redCristian Cásseres Jr.3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF OLYMPIQUE DE MARSEILLE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Olympique de Marseille's attack is %22 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1589 – 1512: Olympique de Marseille ahead by 77 points — effect on expected goals %4Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF TOULOUSE

  • Toulouse concedes %11 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Olympique de Marseille -0,68, Toulouse +0,63
  • Olympique de Marseille concedes %7 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.