Skip to content
Ligue 131 Oct 22:45 TRT

ES Troyes AC×Le Mans FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · ES Troyes: 41.7%fair odds 2.40
  • FT X · draw: 27.2%fair odds 3.68
  • FT 2 · Le Mans: 31.1%fair odds 3.22

Double chance

  • 1X · ES Troyes doesn't lose:
    68.9%fair odds 1.45
    X2 · Le Mans doesn't lose:
    58.3%fair odds 1.72
    12 · no draw:
    72.8%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.0%fair odds 2.33
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.0%fair odds 1.75

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.0%fair odds 1.64
    BTTS No:
    39.0%fair odds 2.56

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.8%fair odds 3.60
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.2%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ES TroyesLe Mans
League table17. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 5L advantaged: 15. place 7 pts · 1W 4D 3L

Form favours Le Mans, the model favours ES Troyes. In the 733 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 53%, the form's side won 21%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesDLLLL0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: DLLWD1.0 pts/match

Goals

ES TroyesLe Mans
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.611.36

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−2.4 puan−1.4 puan

Players

ES TroyesLe Mans
Last starting XI4-3-33-1-4-2
ScorerAntoine Mille1 goalsLouis Mafouta4 goals
Most dangerousRenaud Ripartexpected goals 2.1Louis Mafoutaexpected goals 5.4
Finisher—Dame Gueye−1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperPatrick Beachconceded 1.3 goals more than expectedNicolas Kocikconceded 1.1 goals more than expected
Most cardsMichel Diaz4 yellowDjibril Sidibé2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ES TROYES

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Le Mans concedes %19 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF LE MANS

  • ES Troyes's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • ES Troyes concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1456 – 1481: Le Mans ahead by 25 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.