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Ligue 11 Nov 19:15 TRT

Paris FC×AS Monaco FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Paris: 42.5%fair odds 2.35
  • FT X · draw: 28.0%fair odds 3.57
  • FT 2 · Monaco: 29.5%fair odds 3.40

Double chance

  • 1X · Paris doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    X2 · Monaco doesn't lose:
    57.5%fair odds 1.74
    12 · no draw:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.9%fair odds 2.13
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.1%fair odds 1.88

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.8%fair odds 1.73
    BTTS No:
    42.2%fair odds 2.37

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.8%fair odds 3.36
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.2%fair odds 1.42

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ParisMonaco
League table6. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 2L advantaged: 4. place 15 pts · 4W 3D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLWD1.4 pts/matchDLDWD1.2 pts/match

Goals

ParisMonaco
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.541.26

Match total 2.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−1.2 puan+4.2 puan

Players

ParisMonaco
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerLassine Sinayoko6 goalsParis Brunner4 goals
Most dangerousLassine Sinayokoexpected goals 4.7Paris Brunnerexpected goals 3.4
FinisherLassine Sinayoko+0.3 goals vs expectationParis Brunner+0.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperKevin Trappconceded 0.7 goals fewer than expectedLukas Hradeckyconceded 2.7 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsHamari Traoré3 yellowAleksandr Golovin3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF PARIS

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Paris concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Paris +0,26, Monaco 0,0

IN FAVOUR OF MONACO

  • Monaco's attack is %6 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1535 – 1582: Monaco ahead by 47 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.