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Ligue 11 Nov 17:00 TRT

RC Strasbourg Alsace×AJ Auxerre

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Strasbourg Alsace: 50.0%fair odds 2.00
  • FT X · draw: 26.7%fair odds 3.75
  • FT 2 · AJ Auxerre: 23.3%fair odds 4.30

Double chance

  • 1X · Strasbourg Alsace doesn't lose:
    76.7%fair odds 1.30
    X2 · AJ Auxerre doesn't lose:
    50.0%fair odds 2.00
    12 · no draw:
    73.3%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    45.8%fair odds 2.18
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    54.2%fair odds 1.84

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.1%fair odds 2.32

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.2%fair odds 3.43
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.8%fair odds 1.41

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Strasbourg AlsaceAJ Auxerre
League table16. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 5L advantaged: 12. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 4L

Form and league table favours AJ Auxerre, the model favours Strasbourg Alsace. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLLLLD0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: DWLWW2.0 pts/match

Goals

Strasbourg AlsaceAJ Auxerre
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.731.12

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck+0.3 puan+0.9 puan

Players

Strasbourg AlsaceAJ Auxerre
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerGessime Yassine2 goalsCameron Archer5 goals
Most dangerousGessime Yassineexpected goals 1.1Danny Namasoexpected goals 2.3
Finisher—Cameron Archer+2.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperFilip Jorgensenconceded 2.3 goals more than expectedMamadou Diopconceded 5.3 goals more than expected
Most cardsGessime Yassine3 yellowChrist Makosso1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF STRASBOURG ALSACE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • AJ Auxerre's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1545 – 1469: Strasbourg Alsace ahead by 76 points — effect on expected goals %4Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF AJ AUXERRE

  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Strasbourg Alsace -0,75, AJ Auxerre +0,15
  • Strasbourg Alsace concedes %6 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.