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Ligue 131 Oct 22:45 TRT

FC Lorient×Stade Brestois 29

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Lorient: 44.0%fair odds 2.27
  • FT X · draw: 29.0%fair odds 3.45
  • FT 2 · Stade Brestois 29: 27.0%fair odds 3.70

Double chance

  • 1X · Lorient doesn't lose:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37
    X2 · Stade Brestois 29 doesn't lose:
    56.0%fair odds 1.79
    12 · no draw:
    71.0%fair odds 1.41

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    51.5%fair odds 1.94
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    48.5%fair odds 2.06

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    53.9%fair odds 1.86
    BTTS No:
    46.1%fair odds 2.17

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    32.2%fair odds 3.10
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    67.8%fair odds 1.48

ANALYSES

Form and standings

LorientStade Brestois 29
League tableadvantaged: 9. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 2L 13. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DWWLD1.6 pts/matchLDWLL0.8 pts/match

Goals

LorientStade Brestois 29
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.491.12

Match total 2.6

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/50/5
Luck+0.2 puan−6.3 puan

Players

LorientStade Brestois 29
Last starting XI3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerJean-Victor Makengo1 goalsKamory Doumbia4 goals
Most dangerousMamadou Konéexpected goals 1.6Kamory Doumbiaexpected goals 4.1
Finisher—Pathé Mboup−0.4 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperYvon Mvogoconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expectedEgil Selvikconceded 1.0 goals more than expected
Most cardsArsène Kouassi2 yellowKamory Doumbia4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LORIENT

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Lorient concedes %10 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1519 – 1470: Lorient ahead by 49 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF STADE BRESTOIS 29

  • Lorient's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Lorient +0,2, Stade Brestois 29 +0,49

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.