Skip to content
Ligue 130 Oct 23:05 TRT

Lille OSC×Racing Club de Lens

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Lille OSC: 36.6%fair odds 2.73
  • FT X · draw: 29.0%fair odds 3.45
  • FT 2 · Racing Club de Lens: 34.4%fair odds 2.91

Double chance

  • 1X · Lille OSC doesn't lose:
    65.6%fair odds 1.52
    X2 · Racing Club de Lens doesn't lose:
    63.4%fair odds 1.58
    12 · no draw:
    71.0%fair odds 1.41

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    49.5%fair odds 2.02
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    50.5%fair odds 1.98

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.4%fair odds 1.77
    BTTS No:
    43.6%fair odds 2.29

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    31.1%fair odds 3.21
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    68.9%fair odds 1.45

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Lille OSCRacing Club de Lens
League tableadvantaged: 3. place 15 pts · 4W 3D 1L 7. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 3L
Last 5 matchesDDWLW1.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWLD2.0 pts/match

Goals

Lille OSCRacing Club de Lens
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.371.32

Match total 2.7

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5
Luck+4.3 puan+0.4 puan

Players

Lille OSCRacing Club de Lens
Last starting XI4-3-33-4-2-1
ScorerOlivier Giroud2 goalsFlorian Thauvin4 goals
Most dangerousEthan Mbappéexpected goals 1.8Florian Thauvinexpected goals 3.5
Finisher——
GoalkeeperBerke Özerconceded 1.6 goals fewer than expectedRobin Risserconceded 0.7 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsRomain Perraud3 yellowSouleymane Sagnan1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity1/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LILLE OSC

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Lille OSC concedes %19 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Lille OSC +0,43, Racing Club de Lens +0,08

IN FAVOUR OF RACING CLUB DE LENS

  • Racing Club de Lens's attack is %30 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Racing Club de Lens concedes %13 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1604 – 1617: Racing Club de Lens ahead by 13 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.