Skip to content
Ligue 130 Oct 21:00 TRT

Le Havre AC×Paris Saint-Germain FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Le Havre: 13.4%fair odds 7.48
  • FT X · draw: 22.5%fair odds 4.45
  • FT 2 · Paris Saint-Germain: 64.2%fair odds 1.56

Double chance

  • 1X · Le Havre doesn't lose:
    35.8%fair odds 2.79
    X2 · Paris Saint-Germain doesn't lose:
    86.6%fair odds 1.15
    12 · no draw:
    77.5%fair odds 1.29

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.9%fair odds 2.28
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.1%fair odds 1.78

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.6%fair odds 1.94
    BTTS No:
    48.4%fair odds 2.07

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.0%fair odds 3.57
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Le HavreParis Saint-Germain
League table18. place 2 pts · 0W 2D 6L advantaged: 1. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 1L
Last 5 matchesLLLLD0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWW3.0 pts/match

Goals

Le HavreParis Saint-Germain
Expected goals0.86advantaged: 2.07

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck−6.6 puan+1.3 puan

Players

Le HavreParis Saint-Germain
Last starting XI5-3-24-3-3
ScorerJosh Maja3 goalsFerran Torres4 goals
Most dangerousJosh Majaexpected goals 2.7Ousmane Dembéléexpected goals 2.3
FinisherJosh Maja−0.0 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperGauthier Gallonconceded 3.1 goals more than expectedMatvey Safonovconceded 0.3 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAyumu Seko2 yellow, 1 redVitinha2 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LE HAVRE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,26

IN FAVOUR OF PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

  • Paris Saint-Germain's attack is %37 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Paris Saint-Germain concedes %22 fewer goals than the league average
  • Le Havre's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1397 – 1730: Paris Saint-Germain ahead by 333 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Le Havre -0,01, Paris Saint-Germain +1,3
  • Le Havre concedes %8 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.