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La Liga30 Oct 23:00 TRT

Villarreal CF×RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Villarreal: 73.8%fair odds 1.35
  • FT X · draw: 17.3%fair odds 5.76
  • FT 2 · Espanyol de Barcelona: 8.8%fair odds 11.34

Double chance

  • 1X · Villarreal doesn't lose:
    91.2%fair odds 1.10
    X2 · Espanyol de Barcelona doesn't lose:
    26.2%fair odds 3.82
    12 · no draw:
    82.7%fair odds 1.21

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    35.2%fair odds 2.84
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    64.8%fair odds 1.54

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.9%fair odds 1.93
    BTTS No:
    48.1%fair odds 2.08

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    23.5%fair odds 4.26
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.5%fair odds 1.31

ANALYSES

Form and standings

VillarrealEspanyol de Barcelona
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 4L 18. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 6L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WDLWW2.0 pts/matchLLDLL0.2 pts/match

Goals

VillarrealEspanyol de Barcelona
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.530.81

Match total 3.3

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−6.2 puan−4.3 puan

Players

VillarrealEspanyol de Barcelona
Last starting XI4-4-24-2-3-1
ScorerGeorges Mikautadze3 goalsRoberto Fernández6 goals
Most dangerousAlberto Moleiroexpected goals 3.2Roberto Fernándezexpected goals 4.9
FinisherAlberto Moleiro−1.2 goals vs expectationRoberto Fernández+1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperPéter Gulácsiconceded 2.4 goals fewer than expectedMarko Dmitrovicconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsRenato Veiga4 yellowOmar El Hilali2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF VILLARREAL

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Espanyol de Barcelona's attack is %18 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Villarreal's attack is %21 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1601 – 1444: Villarreal ahead by 157 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Villarreal +1,75, Espanyol de Barcelona -0,74
  • Espanyol de Barcelona concedes %7 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF ESPANYOL DE BARCELONA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.