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Süper Lig31 Oct 19:00 TRT

Fenerbahçe×Göztepe

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Fenerbahçe: 68.2%fair odds 1.47
  • FT X · draw: 19.3%fair odds 5.18
  • FT 2 · Göztepe: 12.5%fair odds 7.99

Double chance

  • 1X · Fenerbahçe doesn't lose:
    87.5%fair odds 1.14
    X2 · Göztepe doesn't lose:
    31.8%fair odds 3.14
    12 · no draw:
    80.7%fair odds 1.24

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    31.8%fair odds 3.14
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    68.2%fair odds 1.47

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.0%fair odds 1.67
    BTTS No:
    40.0%fair odds 2.50

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    22.2%fair odds 4.51
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    77.8%fair odds 1.28

ANALYSES

Form and standings

FenerbahçeGöztepe
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 3L 10. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesLWWWD2.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWDD2.2 pts/match

Goals

FenerbahçeGöztepe
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.491.03

Match total 3.5

Clean sheetadvantaged: 4/52/5

Players

FenerbahçeGöztepe
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-1-2
ScorerVedat Muriqi7 goalsJuan6 goals
Most cardsIrfan Can Kahveci2 yellowAlex Matos3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF FENERBAHÇE

  • Fenerbahçe's attack is %60 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Fenerbahçe concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1720 – 1557: Fenerbahçe ahead by 163 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Fenerbahçe +2,6, Göztepe +1,4

IN FAVOUR OF GÖZTEPE

  • Göztepe concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Göztepe's attack is %6 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.