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Süper Lig1 Nov 16:00 TRT

İstanbul Başakşehir×Samsunspor

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · İstanbul Başakşehir: 64.9%fair odds 1.54
  • FT X · draw: 21.1%fair odds 4.73
  • FT 2 · Samsunspor: 13.9%fair odds 7.17

Double chance

  • 1X · İstanbul Başakşehir doesn't lose:
    86.1%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Samsunspor doesn't lose:
    35.1%fair odds 2.85
    12 · no draw:
    78.9%fair odds 1.27

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    35.9%fair odds 2.79
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    64.1%fair odds 1.56

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.4%fair odds 1.71
    BTTS No:
    41.6%fair odds 2.41

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.2%fair odds 4.13
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.8%fair odds 1.32

ANALYSES

Form and standings

İstanbul BaşakşehirSamsunspor
League tableadvantaged: 12. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 4L 17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 7L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWDWL1.4 pts/matchLLLLL0.0 pts/match

Goals

İstanbul BaşakşehirSamsunspor
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.291.01

Match total 3.3

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5

Players

İstanbul BaşakşehirSamsunspor
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-5-2
ScorerEldor Shomurodov7 goalsLogi Tomasson2 goals
Most cardsOlivier Kemen3 yellowAfonso Sousa2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF İSTANBUL BAŞAKŞEHIR

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21
  • İstanbul Başakşehir's attack is %20 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Samsunspor concedes %18 more goals than the league average
  • İstanbul Başakşehir concedes %9 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1572 – 1485: İstanbul Başakşehir ahead by 87 points — effect on expected goals %4Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: İstanbul Başakşehir -0,4, Samsunspor -2,4

IN FAVOUR OF SAMSUNSPOR

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.