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Süper Lig31 Oct 13:30 TRT

Erzurum BB×Çorum FK

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Erzurum BB: 33.5%fair odds 2.98
  • FT X · draw: 28.6%fair odds 3.50
  • FT 2 · Çorum: 37.9%fair odds 2.64

Double chance

  • 1X · Erzurum BB doesn't lose:
    62.1%fair odds 1.61
    X2 · Çorum doesn't lose:
    66.5%fair odds 1.50
    12 · no draw:
    71.4%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.0%fair odds 2.18
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    54.0%fair odds 1.85

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    59.2%fair odds 1.69
    BTTS No:
    40.8%fair odds 2.45

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.6%fair odds 3.38
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.4%fair odds 1.42

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Erzurum BBÇorum
League tableadvantaged: 8. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 3L 9. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWDWL2.0 pts/matchLWWLW1.8 pts/match

Goals

Erzurum BBÇorum
Expected goals1.37advantaged: 1.47

Match total 2.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/51/5

Players

Erzurum BBÇorum
Last starting XI5-3-23-4-3
ScorerEren Tozlu3 goalsAlexandros Kyziridis4 goals
Most cardsElisha Owusu2 yellowAlexandros Kyziridis1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ERZURUM BB

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Çorum concedes %11 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF ÇORUM

  • Çorum's attack is %22 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Erzurum BB's attack is %15 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Erzurum BB +0,4, Çorum +1,0
  • Strength rating 1507 – 1523: Çorum ahead by 16 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.