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La Liga31 Oct 20:30 TRT

Real Betis Balompié×Málaga CF

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Real Betis Balompié: 71.1%fair odds 1.41
  • FT X · draw: 18.8%fair odds 5.31
  • FT 2 · Málaga: 10.1%fair odds 9.95

Double chance

  • 1X · Real Betis Balompié doesn't lose:
    89.9%fair odds 1.11
    X2 · Málaga doesn't lose:
    28.9%fair odds 3.46
    12 · no draw:
    81.2%fair odds 1.23

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    37.7%fair odds 2.66
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    62.3%fair odds 1.60

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    52.0%fair odds 1.92
    BTTS No:
    48.0%fair odds 2.09

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.7%fair odds 4.04
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.3%fair odds 1.33

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Real Betis BalompiéMálaga
League tableadvantaged: 4. place 20 pts · 6W 2D 2L 20. place 5 pts · 0W 5D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: DLWDW1.6 pts/matchDLDLL0.4 pts/match

Goals

Real Betis BalompiéMálaga
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.390.82

Match total 3.2

Clean sheetadvantaged: 2/50/5
Luck+6.1 puan−2.8 puan

Players

Real Betis BalompiéMálaga
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-1-4-1
ScorerAbde Ezzalzouli3 goalsAdrián Niño4 goals
Most dangerousIscoexpected goals 2.9Chupeexpected goals 2.9
FinisherJuan Camilo Hernández−0.2 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperÁlvaro Vallésconceded 4.1 goals fewer than expectedAlfonso Herreroconceded 0.8 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsFacundo Bernal1 yellow, 1 redCarlos Puga3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity10/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF REAL BETIS BALOMPIÉ

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Málaga's attack is %20 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Málaga concedes %15 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1580 – 1455: Real Betis Balompié ahead by 124 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Real Betis Balompié's attack is %9 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Real Betis Balompié +0,26, Málaga -1,35

IN FAVOUR OF MÁLAGA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.