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La Liga31 Oct 18:15 TRT

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid×RC Celta de Vigo

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: 43.8%fair odds 2.28
  • FT X · draw: 29.8%fair odds 3.35
  • FT 2 · Celta de Vigo: 26.4%fair odds 3.79

Double chance

  • 1X · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid doesn't lose:
    73.6%fair odds 1.36
    X2 · Celta de Vigo doesn't lose:
    56.2%fair odds 1.78
    12 · no draw:
    70.2%fair odds 1.43

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    54.9%fair odds 1.82
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    45.1%fair odds 2.22

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.2%fair odds 1.95
    BTTS No:
    48.8%fair odds 2.05

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    34.0%fair odds 2.94
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    66.0%fair odds 1.52

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Rayo Vallecano de MadridCelta de Vigo
League table16. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 4L advantaged: 9. place 12 pts · 2W 6D 2L

Form favours Celta de Vigo, the model favours Rayo Vallecano de Madrid. In the 733 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 53%, the form's side won 21%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLDDWL1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: DWDWD1.8 pts/match

Goals

Rayo Vallecano de MadridCelta de Vigo
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.421.06

Match total 2.5

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck−1.6 puan+0.2 puan

Players

Rayo Vallecano de MadridCelta de Vigo
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-3
ScorerSergio Camello7 goalsFerran Jutglà2 goals
Most dangerousSergio Camelloexpected goals 3.2Hugo Gonzalezexpected goals 1.4
FinisherSergio Camello+3.8 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperEmil Auderoconceded 1.0 goals more than expectedIonut Raduconceded 1.8 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsPathé Ciss5 yellowMarcos Alonso2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF RAYO VALLECANO DE MADRID

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Celta de Vigo's attack is %10 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF CELTA DE VIGO

  • Celta de Vigo concedes %9 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid -0,12, Celta de Vigo +0,29
  • Strength rating 1492 – 1517: Celta de Vigo ahead by 25 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.