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La Liga31 Oct 16:00 TRT

Levante UD×Club Atlético de Madrid

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Levante UD: 28.5%fair odds 3.51
  • FT X · draw: 27.0%fair odds 3.71
  • FT 2 · Club Atlético de Madrid: 44.5%fair odds 2.25

Double chance

  • 1X · Levante UD doesn't lose:
    55.5%fair odds 1.80
    X2 · Club Atlético de Madrid doesn't lose:
    71.5%fair odds 1.40
    12 · no draw:
    73.0%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.3%fair odds 2.31
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.7%fair odds 1.76

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.3%fair odds 1.66
    BTTS No:
    39.7%fair odds 2.52

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.9%fair odds 3.58
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.1%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Levante UDClub Atlético de Madrid
League table14. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 4L advantaged: 2. place 25 pts · 8W 1D 1L
Last 5 matchesLWDDL1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWW3.0 pts/match

Goals

Levante UDClub Atlético de Madrid
Expected goals1.30advantaged: 1.66

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 3/5
Luck−0.3 puan+6.6 puan

Players

Levante UDClub Atlético de Madrid
Last starting XI4-4-24-3-3
ScorerRoger Brugué5 goalsÁlex Baena5 goals
Most dangerousRoger Bruguéexpected goals 4.0Jonathan Christian Davidexpected goals 3.7
FinisherRoger Brugué+1.0 goals vs expectationJonathan Christian David−0.7 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMat Ryanconceded 1.1 goals more than expectedJan Oblakconceded 3.6 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAdrián de la Fuente3 yellowRobin Le Normand1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LEVANTE UD

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16

IN FAVOUR OF CLUB ATLÉTICO DE MADRID

  • Levante UD concedes %16 more goals than the league average
  • Club Atlético de Madrid's attack is %15 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1479 – 1647: Club Atlético de Madrid ahead by 168 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Levante UD -1,49, Club Atlético de Madrid +1,74
  • Club Atlético de Madrid concedes %7 fewer goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.