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Şampiyonlar Ligi3 Nov 23:00 TRT

Villarreal CF×Paris Saint-Germain FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Villarreal: 10.0%fair odds 9.96
  • FT X · draw: 15.9%fair odds 6.29
  • FT 2 · Paris Saint-Germain: 74.1%fair odds 1.35

Double chance

  • 1X · Villarreal doesn't lose:
    25.9%fair odds 3.86
    X2 · Paris Saint-Germain doesn't lose:
    90.0%fair odds 1.11
    12 · no draw:
    84.1%fair odds 1.19

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    36.4%fair odds 2.74
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    63.6%fair odds 1.57

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    50.4%fair odds 1.98
    BTTS No:
    49.6%fair odds 2.02

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    22.9%fair odds 4.37
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    77.1%fair odds 1.30

ANALYSES

Form and standings

VillarrealParis Saint-Germain
League table19. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 2L advantaged: 1. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 0L
Last 5 matchesLWLLL0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWD2.6 pts/match

Goals

VillarrealParis Saint-Germain
Expected goals0.80advantaged: 2.48

Match total 3.3

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck−7.6 puan+0.1 puan

Players

VillarrealParis Saint-Germain
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-3-3
ScorerGeorges Mikautadze2 goalsOusmane Dembélé3 goals
Most dangerousAlberto Moleiroexpected goals 3.1Ousmane Dembéléexpected goals 2.2
FinisherAlberto Moleiro−1.1 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperPéter Gulácsiconceded 2.1 goals fewer than expectedMatvey Safonovconceded 0.4 goals more than expected
Most cardsSantiago Mouriño2 yellowWarren Zaïre-Emery1 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF VILLARREAL

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

  • European strength rating 1623 – 1963: Paris Saint-Germain ahead by 340 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.