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Şampiyonlar Ligi3 Nov 23:00 TRT

FC Barcelona×Aston Villa FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Barcelona: 56.7%fair odds 1.76
  • FT X · draw: 22.4%fair odds 4.47
  • FT 2 · Aston Villa: 20.9%fair odds 4.79

Double chance

  • 1X · Barcelona doesn't lose:
    79.1%fair odds 1.26
    X2 · Aston Villa doesn't lose:
    43.3%fair odds 2.31
    12 · no draw:
    77.6%fair odds 1.29

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.8%fair odds 2.28
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.2%fair odds 1.78

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    55.2%fair odds 1.81
    BTTS No:
    44.8%fair odds 2.23

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.7%fair odds 3.74
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.3%fair odds 1.36

ANALYSES

Form and standings

BarcelonaAston Villa
League table8. place 6 pts · 2W 0D 1L advantaged: 2. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 0L

League table favours Aston Villa, the model favours Barcelona. The model does not look at a single section but at the teams' long-term strength; so the two can point to different teams.

Last 5 matchesLWWWL1.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WWW3.0 pts/match

Goals

BarcelonaAston Villa
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.881.05

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/3
Luck+3.4 puan0.0 puan

Players

BarcelonaAston Villa
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerLamine Yamal2 goalsRoss Barkley3 goals
Most dangerousLamine Yamalexpected goals 6.0Nicolas Jacksonexpected goals 1.7
FinisherRaphinha+2.6 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperJoan Garcíaconceded 1.3 goals fewer than expectedZion Suzukiconceded 0.3 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsDani Olmo1 yellowIan Maatsen1 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF BARCELONA

  • European strength rating 1907 – 1824: Barcelona ahead by 83 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF ASTON VILLA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.