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Şampiyonlar Ligi3 Nov 20:45 TRT

Galatasaray SK×VfB Stuttgart

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Galatasaray: 48.4%fair odds 2.07
  • FT X · draw: 24.2%fair odds 4.13
  • FT 2 · Stuttgart: 27.4%fair odds 3.65

Double chance

  • 1X · Galatasaray doesn't lose:
    72.6%fair odds 1.38
    X2 · Stuttgart doesn't lose:
    51.6%fair odds 1.94
    12 · no draw:
    75.8%fair odds 1.32

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    45.7%fair odds 2.19
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    54.3%fair odds 1.84

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.4%fair odds 1.77
    BTTS No:
    43.6%fair odds 2.29

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.7%fair odds 3.61
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.3%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Form and standings

GalatasarayStuttgart
League table23. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 2L advantaged: 6. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 0L

League table favours Stuttgart, the model favours Galatasaray. The model does not look at a single section but at the teams' long-term strength; so the two can point to different teams.

Last 5 matchesWLLLW1.2 pts/matchadvantaged: DWW2.3 pts/match

Goals

GalatasarayStuttgart
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.661.19

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 1/3
Luck—−2.2 puan

Players

GalatasarayStuttgart
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerAlexey Batrakov2 goalsErmedin Demirovic4 goals
Most dangerous—Ermedin Demirovicexpected goals 3.8
Finisher—Ermedin Demirovic−0.8 goals vs expectation
Goalkeeper—Fabian Bredlowconceded 4.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsIsmail Jakobs2 yellowBilal El Khannouss1 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GALATASARAY

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher
  • European strength rating 1678 – 1656: Galatasaray ahead by 22 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF STUTTGART

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.