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Şampiyonlar Ligi3 Nov 23:00 TRT

Manchester United FC×AS Roma

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Manchester United: 43.1%fair odds 2.32
  • FT X · draw: 24.9%fair odds 4.01
  • FT 2 · Roma: 32.0%fair odds 3.13

Double chance

  • 1X · Manchester United doesn't lose:
    68.0%fair odds 1.47
    X2 · Roma doesn't lose:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76
    12 · no draw:
    75.1%fair odds 1.33

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.4%fair odds 2.16
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.6%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.1%fair odds 2.32

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.0%fair odds 3.57
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.0%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Manchester UnitedRoma
League table20. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 2L advantaged: 15. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 1L

League table favours Roma, the model favours Manchester United. The model does not look at a single section but at the teams' long-term strength; so the two can point to different teams.

Last 5 matchesLLW1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WLD1.3 pts/match

Goals

Manchester UnitedRoma
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.541.29

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet1/31/3
Luck−2.7 puan+2.2 puan

Players

Manchester UnitedRoma
Last starting XI4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerBenjamin Sesko1 goalsDonyell Malen3 goals
Most dangerousBryan Mbeumoexpected goals 3.4Donyell Malenexpected goals 5.4
FinisherBryan Mbeumo+0.6 goals vs expectationDonyell Malen+0.6 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperSenne Lammensconceded 3.7 goals fewer than expectedMile Svilarconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsLeny Yoro1 redBryan Cristante1 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER UNITED

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF ROMA

  • European strength rating 1729 – 1746: Roma ahead by 17 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.