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Bundesliga23 Oct 21:30 TRTREFEREE · MATTHIAS JÖLLENBECK

VfB Stuttgart×Borussia Mönchengladbach

MATCH FINISHEDStuttgart 2–3 Borussia MönchengladbachHT 1–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:40 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Stuttgart: 68.5%fair odds 1.46
  • FT X · draw: 18.0%fair odds 5.56
  • FT 2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach: 13.5%fair odds 7.43

Double chance

  • 1X · Stuttgart doesn't lose:
    86.5%fair odds 1.16
    X2 · Borussia Mönchengladbach doesn't lose:
    31.5%fair odds 3.18
    12 · no draw:
    82.0%fair odds 1.22

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    26.1%fair odds 3.83
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    73.9%fair odds 1.35

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    65.1%fair odds 1.54
    BTTS No:
    34.9%fair odds 2.86

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    19.1%fair odds 5.22
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    80.9%fair odds 1.24

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
  1. Goal: Ermedin Demirovicassist Dzenan Pejcinovic5'
  2. 38'Goal: Joe Scallyassist Zento Uno
  3. Yellow card: Leo Sauer44'
  4. Yellow card: Atakan Karazor45'
  5. 45+3'Yellow card: Florian Neuhaus
  6. 51'Goal: Shuto Machinoassist Wael Mohya
  7. 53'Yellow card: Zento Uno
  8. 54'Yellow card: Joe Scally
  9. 66'Goal: Wael Mohyaassist Joe Scally
  10. 79'Yellow card: Lukas Ullrich
  11. Goal: Ermedin Demirovicassist Jamie Leweling83'

Statistics

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
15Shotsadvantaged: 16
5Shots on targetadvantaged: 6
advantaged: 6Corners5
advantaged: %70Possession%30
9Fouls14
1.99Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.69

Shot map

Stuttgart

15 shots · 2 goals · xG 1.99

Borussia Mönchengladbach

16 shots · 3 goals · xG 2.69

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Stuttgart4-2-3-1

  1. 1Dennis Seimen
  2. 2Ramon Hendriks
  3. 3Finn Jeltsch
  4. 4Maximilian Mittelstädt
  5. 5Lorenz Assignon
  6. 6Ermedin Demirovic
  7. 7Angelo Stiller
  8. 8Atakan Karazor
  9. 9Dzenan Pejcinovic
  10. 10Chris Führich
  11. 11Leo Sauer

Borussia Mönchengladbach3-4-2-1

  1. 1Moritz Nicolas
  2. 2Philipp Sander
  3. 3Fabio Chiarodia
  4. 4Daiki Hashioka
  5. 5Florian Neuhaus
  6. 6Zento Uno
  7. 7Lukas Ullrich
  8. 8Joe Scally
  9. 9Shuto Machino
  10. 10Wael Mohya
  11. 11Hugo Bolin

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBorussia Mönchengladbach win%13most likely: Stuttgart win %69
3+ goals?3 or more goals%74it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%65it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.68–1.17 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.78–2.36 · score: 2–3

Form and standings

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
League tableadvantaged: 13. place 6 pts · 2W 0D 4L 18. place 0 pts · 0W 0D 6L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLLW1.2 pts/matchLLLLL0.0 pts/match

Goals

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.681.17

Match total 3.8

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−1.2 puan−4.0 puan

Players

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
Starting XI · official4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerJosha Vagnoman2 goalsHugo Bolin2 goals
Most dangerousErmedin Demirovicexpected goals 3.0Hugo Bolinexpected goals 1.9
FinisherDzenan Pejcinovic−2.2 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperFabian Bredlowconceded 4.2 goals fewer than expectedMoritz Nicolasconceded 1.2 goals more than expected
Most cardsAngelo Stiller1 yellowTim Kleindienst1 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
RefereeMatthias Jöllenbeck

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF STUTTGART

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,83 per match, away sides 1,48
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Stuttgart's attack is %16 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1592 – 1426: Stuttgart ahead by 167 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Stuttgart +0,08, Borussia Mönchengladbach -0,86

IN FAVOUR OF BORUSSIA MÖNCHENGLADBACH

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.