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Ligue 125 Oct 19:15 TRT

Toulouse FC×ES Troyes AC

MATCH FINISHEDToulouse 0–0 ES TroyesHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 17:02 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Toulouse: 60.9%fair odds 1.64
  • FT X · draw: 23.3%fair odds 4.28
  • FT 2 · ES Troyes: 15.8%fair odds 6.35

Double chance

  • 1X · Toulouse doesn't lose:
    84.2%fair odds 1.19
    X2 · ES Troyes doesn't lose:
    39.1%fair odds 2.56
    12 · no draw:
    76.7%fair odds 1.30

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.7%fair odds 2.34
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.3%fair odds 1.75

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.7%fair odds 1.83
    BTTS No:
    45.3%fair odds 2.21

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.5%fair odds 3.64
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.5%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

ToulouseES Troyes
  1. Yellow card: Rafik Messali25'
  2. Yellow card: Aron Donnum25'
  3. 36'Yellow card: Michel Diaz
  4. Yellow card: Cristian Cásseres Jr.39'
  5. 40'Yellow card: Timothé Nkada
  6. Yellow card: Niko Sigur83'
  7. Yellow card: Alexis Vossah89'
  8. Yellow card: Mark McKenzie90+3'

Statistics

ToulouseES Troyes
7Shotsadvantaged: 8
advantaged: 3Shots on target0
advantaged: 4Corners2
advantaged: %63Possession%37
19Fouls14
Starting XI and formation

Toulouse4-4-2

  1. 1Guillaume Restes
  2. 2Rasmus Nicolaisen
  3. 3Mark McKenzie
  4. 4Christ Tapé
  5. 5Rafik Messali
  6. 6Niko Sigur
  7. 7Cristian Cásseres Jr.
  8. 8Thomas Jørgensen
  9. 9Aron Donnum
  10. 10Casper Tengstedt
  11. 11Jacen Russell-Rowe

ES Troyes4-3-3

  1. 1Hillel Konaté
  2. 2Michel Diaz
  3. 3Adrien Monfray
  4. 4Paolo Gozzi Iweru
  5. 5Lucas Maronnier
  6. 6Dermane Karim
  7. 7Mouhamed Diop
  8. 8Antoine Mille
  9. 9Renaud Ripart
  10. 10Timothé Nkada
  11. 11Merwan Ifnaoui

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%23most likely: Toulouse win %61
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%43most likely: 3 or more goals %57
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%45most likely: Both teams score %55

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.03–0.96 · score: 0–0

Form and standings

ToulouseES Troyes
League tableadvantaged: 12. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 2L 17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WDWDL1.6 pts/matchLLLLL0.0 pts/match

Goals

ToulouseES Troyes
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.030.96

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck−3.6 puan−2.4 puan

Players

ToulouseES Troyes
Starting XI · official4-4-24-3-3
ScorerCasper Tengstedt5 goalsAntoine Mille1 goals
Most dangerousCasper Tengstedtexpected goals 4.3Renaud Ripartexpected goals 2.0
FinisherCasper Tengstedt+0.0 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperGuillaume Restesconceded 1.2 goals more than expectedPatrick Beachconceded 1.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsCristian Cásseres Jr.2 yellowMichel Diaz3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF TOULOUSE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • ES Troyes concedes %14 more goals than the league average
  • ES Troyes's attack is %11 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Toulouse concedes %9 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Toulouse +0,97, ES Troyes -0,84
  • Strength rating 1515 – 1453: Toulouse ahead by 62 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF ES TROYES

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.