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Ligue 125 Oct 19:15 TRT

Stade Rennais FC 1901×RC Strasbourg Alsace

MATCH FINISHEDStade Rennais FC 1901 3–0 Strasbourg AlsaceHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 17:02 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Stade Rennais FC 1901: 50.0%fair odds 2.00
  • FT X · draw: 24.0%fair odds 4.17
  • FT 2 · Strasbourg Alsace: 26.0%fair odds 3.84

Double chance

  • 1X · Stade Rennais FC 1901 doesn't lose:
    74.0%fair odds 1.35
    X2 · Strasbourg Alsace doesn't lose:
    50.0%fair odds 2.00
    12 · no draw:
    76.0%fair odds 1.32

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    33.2%fair odds 3.01
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    66.8%fair odds 1.50

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    67.0%fair odds 1.49
    BTTS No:
    33.0%fair odds 3.03

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    22.9%fair odds 4.37
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    77.1%fair odds 1.30

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultStade Rennais FC 1901 win%50it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%67it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%33most likely: Both teams score %67

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.01–1.43 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.51–0.78 · score: 3–0

Form and standings

Stade Rennais FC 1901Strasbourg Alsace
League tableadvantaged: 7. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 2L 14. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 4L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWLWW1.8 pts/matchLLLDW0.8 pts/match

Goals

Stade Rennais FC 1901Strasbourg Alsace
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.011.43

Match total 3.4

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+2.4 puan+1.0 puan

Players

Stade Rennais FC 1901Strasbourg Alsace
Starting XI · official5-3-24-2-3-1
ScorerEsteban Lepaul7 goalsGessime Yassine2 goals
Most dangerousEsteban Lepaulexpected goals 5.1Gessime Yassineexpected goals 1.1
FinisherEsteban Lepaul−0.5 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperBrice Sambaconceded 1.9 goals fewer than expectedFilip Jorgensenconceded 1.3 goals more than expected
Most cardsAdrien Thomasson3 yellowSamir El Mourabet1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF STADE RENNAIS FC 1901

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Stade Rennais FC 1901's attack is %16 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Stade Rennais FC 1901 -0,04, Strasbourg Alsace -0,41
  • Strength rating 1577 – 1554: Stade Rennais FC 1901 ahead by 23 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF STRASBOURG ALSACE

  • Stade Rennais FC 1901 concedes %12 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.