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Ligue 123 Oct 21:45 TRT

Stade Brestois 29×OGC Nice

MATCH FINISHEDStade Brestois 29 1–2 NiceHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (23 Oct 19:42 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Stade Brestois 29: 56.1%fair odds 1.78
  • FT X · draw: 24.9%fair odds 4.01
  • FT 2 · Nice: 19.0%fair odds 5.28

Double chance

  • 1X · Stade Brestois 29 doesn't lose:
    81.0%fair odds 1.23
    X2 · Nice doesn't lose:
    43.9%fair odds 2.28
    12 · no draw:
    75.1%fair odds 1.33

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.9%fair odds 2.28
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    56.1%fair odds 1.78

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.2%fair odds 1.78
    BTTS No:
    43.8%fair odds 2.28

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    28.1%fair odds 3.56
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    71.9%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Stade Brestois 29Nice
  1. Goal: Ludovic Ajorque15'
  2. 58'Yellow card: Hamza Koutoune
  3. 61'Goal: Elye Wahiassist Mohamed Amoura
  4. Yellow card: Kamory Doumbia62'
  5. Yellow card: Ludovic Ajorque64'
  6. 68'Yellow card: Elye Wahi
  7. Yellow card: Bradley Locko71'
  8. 83'Goal: Sofiane Diopassist Elye Wahi
  9. 85'Yellow card: Yehvann Diouf
  10. 90'Yellow card: Niels Nkounkou
  11. 90+8'Yellow card: Isak Jansson

Statistics

Stade Brestois 29Nice
advantaged: 13Shots9
advantaged: 7Shots on target2
3Cornersadvantaged: 7
advantaged: %50Possession%50
14Fouls15
advantaged: 2.15Expected goals (xG)0.69

Shot map

Stade Brestois 29

13 shots · 1 goals · xG 2.15

Nice

9 shots · 2 goals · xG 0.69

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Stade Brestois 294-2-3-1

  1. 1Egil Selvik
  2. 2Gautier Lloris
  3. 3Lucas Tousart
  4. 4Bradley Locko
  5. 5Kenny Lala
  6. 6Kamory Doumbia
  7. 7Hugo Magnetti
  8. 8Joris Chotard
  9. 9Ludovic Ajorque
  10. 10Pathé Mboup
  11. 11Mama Baldé

Nice3-4-2-1

  1. 1Yehvann Diouf
  2. 2Youssouf Ndayishimiye
  3. 3Mohamed Abdelmoneim
  4. 4Alidu Seidu
  5. 5Hicham Boudaoui
  6. 6Axel Witsel
  7. 7Niels Nkounkou
  8. 8Jonathan Clauss
  9. 9Elye Wahi
  10. 10Mohamed Amoura
  11. 11Gauthier Hein

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultNice win%19most likely: Stade Brestois 29 win %56
3+ goals?3 or more goals%56it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%56it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.90–1.04 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.82–0.59 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

Stade Brestois 29Nice
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 2L 13. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesDWLLW1.4 pts/matchLWWLD1.4 pts/match

Goals

Stade Brestois 29Nice
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.901.04

Match total 2.9

Clean sheet0/50/5
Luck−3.9 puan+0.4 puan

Players

Stade Brestois 29Nice
Starting XI · official4-2-3-13-4-2-1
ScorerKamory Doumbia4 goalsElye Wahi2 goals
Most dangerousKamory Doumbiaexpected goals 3.8Sepe Elye Wahiexpected goals 2.4
FinisherPathé Mboup−0.0 goals vs expectationSepe Elye Wahi−0.4 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperEgil Selvikconceded 0.2 goals more than expectedYehvann Dioufconceded 0.6 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsKamory Doumbia3 yellowElye Wahi2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity7/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF STADE BRESTOIS 29

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Nice's attack is %14 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Nice concedes %10 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Stade Brestois 29 +0,49, Nice -0,09
  • Strength rating 1479 – 1467: Stade Brestois 29 ahead by 12 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF NICE

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.