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Süper Lig24 Oct 19:00 TRT

Samsunspor×Amed SFK

MATCH FINISHEDSamsunspor 1–2 Amed SFKHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 18:26 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Samsunspor: 22.1%fair odds 4.53
  • FT X · draw: 25.5%fair odds 3.92
  • FT 2 · Amed SFK: 52.4%fair odds 1.91

Double chance

  • 1X · Samsunspor doesn't lose:
    47.6%fair odds 2.10
    X2 · Amed SFK doesn't lose:
    77.9%fair odds 1.28
    12 · no draw:
    74.5%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    40.6%fair odds 2.46
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    59.4%fair odds 1.68

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    60.5%fair odds 1.65
    BTTS No:
    39.5%fair odds 2.53

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.8%fair odds 3.74
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.2%fair odds 1.37

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

SamsunsporAmed SFK
  1. 3'Yellow card: Dia Saba
  2. Goal: Logi Tomasson21'
  3. Yellow card: Afonso Sousa36'
  4. Red card: Afonso Sousa37'
  5. Yellow card: Bilal Biyazit37'
  6. 45'Yellow card: Furkan Soyalp
  7. Yellow card: Yunus Emre Çift45+1'
  8. 48'Yellow card: Lumbardh Dellova
  9. 60'Yellow card: Mbaye Diagne
  10. 61'Red card: Mbaye Diagne
  11. 73'Goal: Gift Orbanpenalty
  12. 83'Goal: Dia Saba
  13. Yellow card: Elayis Tavsan89'

Statistics

SamsunsporAmed SFK
10Shotsadvantaged: 22
3Shots on targetadvantaged: 5
2Cornersadvantaged: 8
%48Possessionadvantaged: %52
15Fouls16
Starting XI and formation

Samsunspor3-5-2

  1. 1Bilal Biyazit
  2. 2Gabriele Guarino
  3. 3Igor Drapinski
  4. 4Strahinja Erakovic
  5. 5Afonso Sousa
  6. 6Antoine Sekongo
  7. 7Elliot Watt
  8. 8Logi Tomasson
  9. 9Josafat Mendes
  10. 10Mohamed Bayo
  11. 11Tanguy Coulibaly

Amed SFK4-2-3-1

  1. 1Alban Lafont
  2. 2David Bates
  3. 3Lumbardh Dellova
  4. 4Umut Meras
  5. 5Ermal Krasniqi
  6. 6Dia Saba
  7. 7Furkan Soyalp
  8. 8Rayan Raveloson
  9. 9Gift Orban
  10. 10Mohamed Khalil
  11. 11Samuel Ballet

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultAmed SFK win%52it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%59it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%60it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.18–1.89 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

SamsunsporAmed SFK
League table17. place 4 pts · 1W 1D 6L advantaged: 2. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 1L
Last 5 matchesLLLLL0.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WDWWD2.2 pts/match

Goals

SamsunsporAmed SFK
Expected goals1.18advantaged: 1.89

Match total 3.1

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 2/5

Players

SamsunsporAmed SFK
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerCelil Yuksel1 goalsGift Orban7 goals
Most cardsElliot Watt2 yellowAmadou Cissé1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SAMSUNSPOR

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21

IN FAVOUR OF AMED SFK

  • Amed SFK's attack is %29 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Samsunspor concedes %16 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Samsunspor -2,4, Amed SFK +1,4
  • Amed SFK concedes %7 fewer goals than the league average
  • Samsunspor's attack is %5 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1493 – 1537: Amed SFK ahead by 44 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.