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Şampiyonlar Ligi20 Oct 19:45 TRTREFEREE · JAVIER ALBEROLA ROJAS

Sabah FK×Borussia Dortmund

MATCH FINISHEDSabah 1–2 Borussia DortmundHT 1–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (20 Oct 17:55 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Sabah: 13.5%fair odds 7.42
  • FT X · draw: 18.5%fair odds 5.39
  • FT 2 · Borussia Dortmund: 68.0%fair odds 1.47

Double chance

  • 1X · Sabah doesn't lose:
    32.0%fair odds 3.12
    X2 · Borussia Dortmund doesn't lose:
    86.5%fair odds 1.16
    12 · no draw:
    81.5%fair odds 1.23

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    39.6%fair odds 2.52
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    60.4%fair odds 1.66

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    52.5%fair odds 1.91
    BTTS No:
    47.5%fair odds 2.10

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.5%fair odds 4.07
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.5%fair odds 1.33

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultBorussia Dortmund win%68it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%60it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%52it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 0.89–2.24 · score: 1–2

Form and standings

SabahBorussia Dortmund
League table22. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 1L advantaged: 18. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WL1.5 pts/matchLWLWL1.2 pts/match

Goals

SabahBorussia Dortmund
Expected goals0.89advantaged: 2.24

Match total 3.1

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/21/5
Luck—+2.2 puan

Players

SabahBorussia Dortmund
Starting XI · official4-2-3-13-1-4-2
ScorerJoy Lance Mickels1 goalsSerhou Guirassy2 goals
Most dangerous—Serhou Guirassyexpected goals 2.7
Finisher—Serhou Guirassy−0.7 goals vs expectation
Goalkeeper—Gregor Kobelconceded 0.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAkim Zedadka1 yellowFábio Silva1 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

SabahBorussia Dortmund
RefereeJavier Alberola Rojas

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF SABAH

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF BORUSSIA DORTMUND

  • European strength rating 1464 – 1754: Borussia Dortmund ahead by 290 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.