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La Liga1 Nov 18:15 TRT

Real Racing Club de Santander×Real Madrid CF

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Real Racing Club de Santander: 17.9%fair odds 5.59
  • FT X · draw: 23.0%fair odds 4.35
  • FT 2 · Real Madrid: 59.1%fair odds 1.69

Double chance

  • 1X · Real Racing Club de Santander doesn't lose:
    40.9%fair odds 2.45
    X2 · Real Madrid doesn't lose:
    82.1%fair odds 1.22
    12 · no draw:
    77.0%fair odds 1.30

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.0%fair odds 2.63
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    62.0%fair odds 1.61

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    59.7%fair odds 1.67
    BTTS No:
    40.3%fair odds 2.48

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.1%fair odds 3.98
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.9%fair odds 1.34

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Real Racing Club de SantanderReal Madrid
League table13. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 5L advantaged: 3. place 24 pts · 8W 0D 2L
Last 5 matchesWLDLL0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWLW2.4 pts/match

Goals

Real Racing Club de SantanderReal Madrid
Expected goals1.10advantaged: 2.10

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−0.7 puan+2.3 puan

Players

Real Racing Club de SantanderReal Madrid
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerYassir Zabiri8 goalsKylian Mbappé11 goals
Most dangerousYassir Zabiriexpected goals 4.6Kylian Mbappe-Lottinexpected goals 11.3
FinisherYassir Zabiri+3.4 goals vs expectationArda Güler−0.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJulen Agirrezabalaconceded 4.2 goals more than expectedThibaut Courtoisconceded 0.7 goals more than expected
Most cardsJorge Salinas5 yellowVinícius Júnior2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF REAL RACING CLUB DE SANTANDER

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16

IN FAVOUR OF REAL MADRID

  • Real Madrid's attack is %32 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Real Racing Club de Santander concedes %25 more goals than the league average
  • Real Madrid concedes %19 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1477 – 1725: Real Madrid ahead by 248 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Real Racing Club de Santander -1,71, Real Madrid +0,49

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.