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La Liga2 Nov 23:00 TRT

RC Deportivo La Coruña×CA Osasuna

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Deportivo La Coruña: 53.1%fair odds 1.88
  • FT X · draw: 26.7%fair odds 3.74
  • FT 2 · CA Osasuna: 20.1%fair odds 4.97

Double chance

  • 1X · Deportivo La Coruña doesn't lose:
    79.9%fair odds 1.25
    X2 · CA Osasuna doesn't lose:
    46.9%fair odds 2.13
    12 · no draw:
    73.3%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    49.1%fair odds 2.04
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    50.9%fair odds 1.96

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    53.0%fair odds 1.89
    BTTS No:
    47.0%fair odds 2.13

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.9%fair odds 3.24
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.1%fair odds 1.45

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Deportivo La CoruñaCA Osasuna
League tableadvantaged: 11. place 11 pts · 2W 5D 3L 12. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 5L

Form favours CA Osasuna, the model favours Deportivo La Coruña. In the 733 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 53%, the form's side won 21%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLDLDL0.4 pts/matchadvantaged: LWLDL0.8 pts/match

Goals

Deportivo La CoruñaCA Osasuna
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.720.99

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−2.4 puan−2.5 puan

Players

Deportivo La CoruñaCA Osasuna
Last starting XI5-3-24-3-3
ScorerPierre-Emerick Aubameyang5 goalsAnte Budimir7 goals
Most dangerousPierre-Emerick Aubameyangexpected goals 3.8Ante Budimirexpected goals 5.6
FinisherPierre-Emerick Aubameyang+2.2 goals vs expectationAnte Budimir+0.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperLeo Románconceded 0.7 goals fewer than expectedAitor Fernándezconceded 1.6 goals more than expected
Most cardsLorenzo Amatucci3 yellow, 1 redJon Moncayola4 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • CA Osasuna's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Deportivo La Coruña +0,44, CA Osasuna -0,72
  • Strength rating 1498 – 1451: Deportivo La Coruña ahead by 47 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF CA OSASUNA

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.