Skip to content
La Liga1 Nov 16:00 TRT

Getafe CF×Sevilla FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Getafe: 37.8%fair odds 2.64
  • FT X · draw: 34.4%fair odds 2.91
  • FT 2 · Sevilla: 27.8%fair odds 3.60

Double chance

  • 1X · Getafe doesn't lose:
    72.2%fair odds 1.38
    X2 · Sevilla doesn't lose:
    62.2%fair odds 1.61
    12 · no draw:
    65.6%fair odds 1.52

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    68.4%fair odds 1.46
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    31.6%fair odds 3.16

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    40.7%fair odds 2.46
    BTTS No:
    59.3%fair odds 1.69

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    42.2%fair odds 2.37
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    57.8%fair odds 1.73

ANALYSES

Form and standings

GetafeSevilla
League table17. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 5L advantaged: 6. place 17 pts · 5W 2D 3L

Form and league table favours Sevilla, the model favours Getafe. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLDLWL0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WLDLW1.4 pts/match

Goals

GetafeSevilla
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.080.89

Match total 2.0

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+0.5 puan+4.6 puan

Players

GetafeSevilla
Last starting XI5-4-14-4-2
ScorerMartín Satriano2 goalsIsaac Romero3 goals
Most dangerousMartín Satrianoexpected goals 2.2Robbie Ureexpected goals 2.0
FinisherMartín Satriano−0.2 goals vs expectationRobbie Ure−1.0 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperDavid Soriaconceded 1.1 goals more than expectedOdisseas Vlachodimosconceded 1.8 goals more than expected
Most cardsMario Martín3 yellow, 2 redIsaac Romero6 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GETAFE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Sevilla's attack is %17 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Getafe concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF SEVILLA

  • Getafe's attack is %33 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Getafe -1,25, Sevilla -0,33

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.