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La Liga1 Nov 23:00 TRT

Athletic Club×Real Sociedad de Fútbol

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Athletic Club: 51.5%fair odds 1.94
  • FT X · draw: 25.8%fair odds 3.88
  • FT 2 · Real Sociedad de Fútbol: 22.7%fair odds 4.41

Double chance

  • 1X · Athletic Club doesn't lose:
    77.3%fair odds 1.29
    X2 · Real Sociedad de Fútbol doesn't lose:
    48.5%fair odds 2.06
    12 · no draw:
    74.2%fair odds 1.35

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.9%fair odds 2.33
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.1%fair odds 1.75

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.7%fair odds 1.70
    BTTS No:
    41.3%fair odds 2.42

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.7%fair odds 3.61
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.3%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad de Fútbol
League table8. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 3L advantaged: 5. place 19 pts · 6W 1D 3L

Form and league table favours Real Sociedad de Fútbol, the model favours Athletic Club. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesWLDDD1.2 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWL2.4 pts/match

Goals

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad de Fútbol
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.821.15

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/50/5
Luck−2.8 puan+5.8 puan

Players

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad de Fútbol
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-4-2
ScorerÁlex Berenguer3 goalsLuka Sucic3 goals
Most dangerousOihan Sancetexpected goals 2.4Orri Óskarssonexpected goals 4.9
FinisherIñaki Williams−0.6 goals vs expectationMikel Oyarzabal−0.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperUnai Simónconceded 4.4 goals fewer than expectedRemiroconceded 2.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsYuri Berchiche3 yellow, 1 redJon Martín2 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ATHLETIC CLUB

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Real Sociedad de Fútbol concedes %11 more goals than the league average
  • Athletic Club concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Athletic Club +0,44, Real Sociedad de Fútbol +0,28

IN FAVOUR OF REAL SOCIEDAD DE FÚTBOL

  • Real Sociedad de Fútbol's attack is %8 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.