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La Liga1 Nov 20:30 TRT

Elche CF×Valencia CF

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Elche: 40.4%fair odds 2.48
  • FT X · draw: 28.7%fair odds 3.48
  • FT 2 · Valencia: 30.9%fair odds 3.23

Double chance

  • 1X · Elche doesn't lose:
    69.1%fair odds 1.45
    X2 · Valencia doesn't lose:
    59.6%fair odds 1.68
    12 · no draw:
    71.3%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.9%fair odds 2.04
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    51.1%fair odds 1.96

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.5%fair odds 1.77
    BTTS No:
    43.5%fair odds 2.30

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.9%fair odds 3.24
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.1%fair odds 1.45

ANALYSES

Form and standings

ElcheValencia
League tableadvantaged: 15. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 4L 19. place 6 pts · 1W 3D 6L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WDDWL1.6 pts/matchLDDLW1.0 pts/match

Goals

ElcheValencia
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.461.26

Match total 2.7

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/52/5
Luck−1.5 puan−5.2 puan

Players

ElcheValencia
Last starting XI4-3-34-4-2
ScorerFer Niño6 goalsAaron Mayol1 goals
Most dangerousFernando Niñoexpected goals 3.5Javier Guerraexpected goals 1.1
FinisherFernando Niño+2.1 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperMatías Dituroconceded 1.7 goals fewer than expectedStole Dimitrievskiconceded 0.7 goals more than expected
Most cardsFederico Redondo2 yellow, 1 redHarvey Elliott1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity3/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.633

Last 8 months, 224 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.475 / 0.499

Last 8 months, 224 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.477 / 0.481

Last 8 months, 224 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF ELCHE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,64 per match, away sides 1,16
  • Valencia's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1490 – 1469: Elche ahead by 21 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF VALENCIA

  • Elche concedes %19 more goals than the league average
  • Elche's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Elche -0,57, Valencia +0,09

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.