Skip to content
Ligue 124 Oct 21:45 TRTREFEREE · MATHIEU VERNICE

Racing Club de Lens×Paris FC

MATCH FINISHEDRacing Club de Lens 2–1 ParisHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 20:56 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Racing Club de Lens: 59.2%fair odds 1.69
  • FT X · draw: 23.1%fair odds 4.32
  • FT 2 · Paris: 17.6%fair odds 5.68

Double chance

  • 1X · Racing Club de Lens doesn't lose:
    82.4%fair odds 1.21
    X2 · Paris doesn't lose:
    40.8%fair odds 2.45
    12 · no draw:
    76.9%fair odds 1.30

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.9%fair odds 2.57
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    61.1%fair odds 1.64

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    58.9%fair odds 1.70
    BTTS No:
    41.1%fair odds 2.43

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.6%fair odds 3.91
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.4%fair odds 1.34

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Racing Club de LensParis
  1. 28'Yellow card: Moustapha Mbow
  2. 29'Yellow card: Pierre Lees-Melou
  3. 45+2'Goal: Luca Koleoshoassist Lassine Sinayoko
  4. Yellow card: Florian Thauvin51'
  5. Goal: Florian Thauvinassist Thorgan Hazard63'
  6. Yellow card: Samson Baidoo74'
  7. Goal: Thorgan Hazardassist Florian Thauvin83'
  8. Yellow card: Michal Skoras89'
  9. 90+2'Yellow card: Otavio

Statistics

Racing Club de LensParis
advantaged: 9Shots4
advantaged: 3Shots on target1
advantaged: 6Corners1
advantaged: %56Possession%44
17Fouls17
0.70Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 0.71

Shot map

Racing Club de Lens

9 shots · 2 goals · xG 0.70

Paris

4 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.71

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Racing Club de Lens3-4-2-1

  1. 1Robin Risser
  2. 2Samson Baidoo
  3. 3Jean-Clair Todibo
  4. 4Ruben Aguilar
  5. 5Amadou Haidara
  6. 6Michaël Cuisance
  7. 7Matthieu Udol
  8. 8Saud Abdulhamid
  9. 9Franjo Ivanovic
  10. 10Florian Sotoca
  11. 11Florian Thauvin

Paris4-2-3-1

  1. 1Obed Nkambadio
  2. 2Diego Coppola
  3. 3Moustapha Mbow
  4. 4Otavio
  5. 5Adama Camara
  6. 6Pablo Pagis
  7. 7Pierre Lees-Melou
  8. 8Maxime López
  9. 9Lassine Sinayoko
  10. 10Luca Koleosho
  11. 11Ilan Kebbal

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultRacing Club de Lens win%59it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%61it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%59it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.08–1.07 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 0.60–0.61 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

Racing Club de LensParis
League table9. place 10 pts · 3W 1D 3L advantaged: 3. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L

Form and league table favours Paris, the model favours Racing Club de Lens. In the 239 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 50%, the form and league table's side won 24%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesWWLDL1.4 pts/matchadvantaged: WLWDW2.0 pts/match

Goals

Racing Club de LensParis
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.081.07

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5
Luck−1.4 puan+0.2 puan

Players

Racing Club de LensParis
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerFlorian Thauvin3 goalsLassine Sinayoko6 goals
Most dangerousFlorian Thauvinexpected goals 3.4Lassine Sinayokoexpected goals 4.6
Finisher—Lassine Sinayoko+0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperRobin Risserconceded 1.1 goals fewer than expectedKevin Trappconceded 0.6 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsSouleymane Sagnan1 yellow, 1 redHamari Traoré3 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Racing Club de LensParis
RefereeMathieu Vernice

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity8/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF RACING CLUB DE LENS

  • Racing Club de Lens's attack is %29 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,26
  • Racing Club de Lens concedes %12 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1614 – 1539: Racing Club de Lens ahead by 75 points — effect on expected goals %4Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF PARIS

  • Paris concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Racing Club de Lens +0,09, Paris +0,59

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.