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Ligue 126 Oct 22:30 TRTREFEREE · JÉRÔME BRISARD

Paris Saint-Germain FC×Olympique Lyonnais

MATCH FINISHEDParis Saint-Germain 2–0 Olympique LyonnaisHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (26 Oct 20:57 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Paris Saint-Germain: 66.0%fair odds 1.52
  • FT X · draw: 20.7%fair odds 4.84
  • FT 2 · Olympique Lyonnais: 13.4%fair odds 7.49

Double chance

  • 1X · Paris Saint-Germain doesn't lose:
    86.6%fair odds 1.15
    X2 · Olympique Lyonnais doesn't lose:
    34.0%fair odds 2.94
    12 · no draw:
    79.3%fair odds 1.26

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    36.9%fair odds 2.71
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    63.1%fair odds 1.58

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.8%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.2%fair odds 2.31

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.5%fair odds 4.09
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.5%fair odds 1.32

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
  1. Yellow card: Vitinha31'
  2. Yellow card: Maghnes Akliouche51'
  3. Goal: Senny Mayuluassist Mika Godts72'
  4. 74'Yellow card: Ernest Nuamah
  5. Goal: Mika Godtsassist Quentin Ndjantou84'

Statistics

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
advantaged: 17Shots8
advantaged: 10Shots on target5
advantaged: 7Corners4
advantaged: %68Possession%32
8Fouls14
Starting XI and formation

Paris Saint-Germain4-3-3

  1. 1Matvei Safonov
  2. 2Willian Pacho
  3. 3Illia Zabarnyi
  4. 4Warren Zaïre-Emery
  5. 5Achraf Hakimi
  6. 6Vitinha
  7. 7Fabián Ruiz
  8. 8João Neves
  9. 9Ferran Torres
  10. 10Désiré Doué
  11. 11Maghnes Akliouche

Olympique Lyonnais4-3-3

  1. 1Dominik Greif
  2. 2Moussa Niakhaté
  3. 3Felix Bacher
  4. 4Abner
  5. 5Zachary Athekame
  6. 6Tyler Morton
  7. 7Corentin Tolisso
  8. 8Tanner Tessmann
  9. 9Khalis Merah
  10. 10Julien Duranville
  11. 11Ernest Nuamah

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultParis Saint-Germain win%66it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%37most likely: 3 or more goals %63
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%43most likely: Both teams score %57

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.29–0.97 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
League table5. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L advantaged: 4. place 14 pts · 4W 2D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWWL2.4 pts/matchWLWDW2.0 pts/match

Goals

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.290.97

Match total 3.3

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+0.1 puan+2.2 puan

Players

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
Starting XI · official4-3-34-3-3
ScorerFerran Torres4 goalsErnest Nuamah3 goals
Most dangerousOusmane Dembéléexpected goals 2.3Loïs Opendaexpected goals 2.5
Finisher—Ernest Nuamah+0.9 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperMatvey Safonovconceded 0.2 goals more than expectedDominik Greifconceded 0.5 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAchraf Hakimi1 yellowKeito Nakamura1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Paris Saint-GermainOlympique Lyonnais
RefereeJérôme Brisard

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

  • Paris Saint-Germain's attack is %38 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Paris Saint-Germain concedes %21 fewer goals than the league average
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,59 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Strength rating 1726 – 1602: Paris Saint-Germain ahead by 124 points — effect on expected goals %6Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Paris Saint-Germain +1,57, Olympique Lyonnais +0,88

IN FAVOUR OF OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS

  • Olympique Lyonnais concedes %8 fewer goals than the league average
  • Olympique Lyonnais's attack is %5 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.