Skip to content
Ligue 125 Oct 19:15 TRT

Olympique de Marseille×Le Havre AC

MATCH FINISHEDOlympique de Marseille 4–3 Le HavreHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 17:02 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Olympique de Marseille: 66.5%fair odds 1.50
  • FT X · draw: 20.6%fair odds 4.86
  • FT 2 · Le Havre: 13.0%fair odds 7.71

Double chance

  • 1X · Olympique de Marseille doesn't lose:
    87.0%fair odds 1.15
    X2 · Le Havre doesn't lose:
    33.5%fair odds 2.98
    12 · no draw:
    79.4%fair odds 1.26

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    37.3%fair odds 2.68
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    62.7%fair odds 1.59

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.0%fair odds 1.78
    BTTS No:
    44.0%fair odds 2.27

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.7%fair odds 4.05
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.3%fair odds 1.33

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Olympique de MarseilleLe Havre
  1. Goal: CJ Egan-Rileyassist Emerson5'
  2. Goal: Timothy Weah33'
  3. Goal: Igor Paixãoassist Amine Gouiri50'
  4. Goal: Himad Abdelli55'
  5. 77'Goal: Josh Majapenalty
  6. 83'Yellow card: Simon Ebonog
  7. 86'Goal: Mouhamed N'Diaye
  8. 89'Goal: Josh Majaassist Kaito Mizuta
  9. 90+10'Yellow card: Ayumu Seko
  10. 90+11'Yellow card: Mouhamed N'Diaye
  11. Yellow card: Neal Maupay90+12'

Statistics

Olympique de MarseilleLe Havre
11Shotsadvantaged: 21
5Shots on targetadvantaged: 7
advantaged: 4Corners3
advantaged: %53Possession%47
15Fouls11
1.81Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 2.75

Shot map

Olympique de Marseille

11 shots · 4 goals · xG 1.81

Le Havre

21 shots · 3 goals · xG 2.75

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Olympique de Marseille4-2-3-1

  1. 1Jeffrey de Lange
  2. 2Nayef Aguerd
  3. 3CJ Egan-Riley
  4. 4Emerson
  5. 5Timothy Weah
  6. 6Himad Abdelli
  7. 7Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
  8. 8Tochukwu Nnadi
  9. 9Amine Gouiri
  10. 10Igor Paixão
  11. 11Amine Harit

Le Havre5-3-2

  1. 1Gauthier Gallon
  2. 2Junior Mwanga
  3. 3Ahmed Touba
  4. 4Ayumu Seko
  5. 5Enzo Koffi
  6. 6Djibril Ouziad
  7. 7Simon Ebonog
  8. 8Amir Richardson
  9. 9Rassoul Ndiaye
  10. 10Mbwana Samatta
  11. 11Rayan Fofana

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultOlympique de Marseille win%66it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%63it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%56it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.29–0.94 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.56–2.34 · score: 4–3

Form and standings

Olympique de MarseilleLe Havre
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L 18. place 2 pts · 0W 2D 5L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLLL1.2 pts/matchLLLDL0.2 pts/match

Goals

Olympique de MarseilleLe Havre
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.290.94

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck−0.2 puan−4.7 puan

Players

Olympique de MarseilleLe Havre
Starting XI · official4-2-3-15-3-2
ScorerAmine Gouiri5 goalsMbwana Samatta2 goals
Most dangerousAmine Gouiriexpected goals 3.5Mbwana Samattaexpected goals 2.2
FinisherAmine Gouiri+1.8 goals vs expectationMbwana Samatta−0.2 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperJeffrey de Langeconceded 2.6 goals fewer than expectedGauthier Gallonconceded 1.8 goals more than expected
Most cardsTimothy Weah2 yellow, 1 redAyumu Seko1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity9/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.608 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 161 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.482 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.484 / 0.488

Last 8 months, 161 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF OLYMPIQUE DE MARSEILLE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,63 per match, away sides 1,27
  • Le Havre's attack is %21 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Olympique de Marseille's attack is %21 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1587 – 1399: Olympique de Marseille ahead by 188 points — effect on expected goals %8Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Le Havre concedes %5 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF LE HAVRE

  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Olympique de Marseille -0,83, Le Havre -0,47

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.