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Şampiyonlar Ligi20 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · WILLY DELAJOD

Manchester City FC×PAE AEK

MATCH FINISHEDManchester City 5–1 PAE AEKHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (20 Oct 21:43 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Manchester City: 92.6%fair odds 1.08
  • FT X · draw: 5.4%fair odds 18.46
  • FT 2 · PAE AEK: 2.0%fair odds 51.27

Double chance

  • 1X · Manchester City doesn't lose:
    98.0%fair odds 1.02
    X2 · PAE AEK doesn't lose:
    7.4%fair odds 13.57
    12 · no draw:
    94.6%fair odds 1.06

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    19.1%fair odds 5.24
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    80.9%fair odds 1.24

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    39.5%fair odds 2.53
    BTTS No:
    60.5%fair odds 1.65

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    14.1%fair odds 7.09
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    85.9%fair odds 1.16

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Manchester CityPAE AEK
  1. Goal: Elliot Anderson12'
  2. Goal: Phil Fodenassist Rico Lewis34'
  3. 52'Goal: Stavros Piliosassist Zini
  4. Goal: Rayan Cherkiassist Phil Foden57'
  5. Yellow card: Josko Gvardiol59'
  6. Goal: Phil Fodenassist Rico Lewis65'
  7. Goal: Phil Fodenassist Ryan McAidoo76'

Statistics

Manchester CityPAE AEK
advantaged: 17Shots11
advantaged: 7Shots on target3
advantaged: 8Corners3
advantaged: %64Possession%36
6Fouls10
Starting XI and formation

Manchester City4-2-3-1

  1. 1Gianluigi Donnarumma
  2. 2Rúben Dias
  3. 3Abdukodir Khusanov
  4. 4Josko Gvardiol
  5. 5Rico Lewis
  6. 6Rayan Cherki
  7. 7Enzo Fernández
  8. 8Elliot Anderson
  9. 9Floyd Samba
  10. 10Allan Elias
  11. 11Phil Foden

PAE AEK4-4-2

  1. 1Alberto Brignoli
  2. 2Filipe Relvas
  3. 3Harold Moukoudi
  4. 4Stavros Pilios
  5. 5Lazaros Rota
  6. 6Razvan Marin
  7. 7Kervin Arriaga
  8. 8João Mário
  9. 9Lovro Majer
  10. 10Barnabás Varga
  11. 11Luka Jovic

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultManchester City win%93it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%81it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%39most likely: At least one team doesn't score %61

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 3.84–0.52 · score: 5–1

Form and standings

Manchester CityPAE AEK
League tableadvantaged: 18. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 1L 20. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 1L
Last 5 matchesLWLLW1.2 pts/matchadvantaged: LW1.5 pts/match

Goals

Manchester CityPAE AEK
Expected goalsadvantaged: 3.840.52

Match total 4.4

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 1/2
Luck+7.2 puan—

Players

Manchester CityPAE AEK
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-4-2
ScorerErling Haaland4 goalsLovro Majer1 goals
Most dangerousErling Haalandexpected goals 5.3—
FinisherErling Haaland+2.7 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperGianluigi Donnarummaconceded 3.4 goals fewer than expected—
Most cardsAntoine Semenyo1 yellowBarnabás Varga1 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

Manchester CityPAE AEK
RefereeWilly Delajod

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF MANCHESTER CITY

  • European strength rating 1853 – 1417: Manchester City ahead by 436 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF PAE AEK

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.