Skip to content
Şampiyonlar Ligi20 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · SZYMON MARCINIAK

Liverpool FC×Villarreal CF

MATCH FINISHEDLiverpool 4–3 VillarrealHT 2–2

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (20 Oct 21:44 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Liverpool: 68.7%fair odds 1.46
  • FT X · draw: 18.2%fair odds 5.48
  • FT 2 · Villarreal: 13.0%fair odds 7.66

Double chance

  • 1X · Liverpool doesn't lose:
    87.0%fair odds 1.15
    X2 · Villarreal doesn't lose:
    31.3%fair odds 3.20
    12 · no draw:
    81.8%fair odds 1.22

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    39.3%fair odds 2.54
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    60.7%fair odds 1.65

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    52.2%fair odds 1.91
    BTTS No:
    47.8%fair odds 2.09

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    24.4%fair odds 4.10
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    75.6%fair odds 1.32

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

LiverpoolVillarreal
  1. 4'Goal: Georges Mikautadze
  2. 27'Yellow card: Alberto Moleiro
  3. 29'Goal: Sergi Cardonaassist Nathan Saliba
  4. Goal: Alexis Mac Allisterassist Kostas Tsimikas36'
  5. 41'Yellow card: Santiago Mouriño
  6. Goal: Ronald Araújoassist Rio Ngumoha45+2'
  7. Goal: Alexis Mac Allisterassist Rio Ngumoha65'
  8. Goal: Florian Wirtzassist Cody Gakpo68'
  9. 87'Goal: Tani Oluwaseyiassist Ayoze Pérez

Statistics

LiverpoolVillarreal
advantaged: 22Shots14
advantaged: 7Shots on target5
advantaged: 8Corners2
advantaged: %53Possession%47
12Fouls10
Starting XI and formation

Liverpool4-2-3-1

  1. 1Alisson Becker
  2. 2Virgil van Dijk
  3. 3Jérémy Jacquet
  4. 4Kostas Tsimikas
  5. 5Ronald Araújo
  6. 6Ryan Gravenberch
  7. 7Trey Nyoni
  8. 8Alexis Mac Allister
  9. 9Lewis Koumas
  10. 10Cody Gakpo
  11. 11Rio Ngumoha

Villarreal4-2-3-1

  1. 1Péter Gulácsi
  2. 2Renato Veiga
  3. 3Pau Navarro
  4. 4Sergi Cardona
  5. 5Santiago Mouriño
  6. 6Nathan Saliba
  7. 7Pape Gueye
  8. 8Santi Comesaña
  9. 9Georges Mikautadze
  10. 10Alberto Moleiro
  11. 11Tajon Buchanan

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultLiverpool win%69it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%61it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%52it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.26–0.88 · score: 4–3

Form and standings

LiverpoolVillarreal
League tableadvantaged: 5. place 6 pts · 2W 0D 0L 15. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 1L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLLW1.8 pts/matchWLLLL0.6 pts/match

Goals

LiverpoolVillarreal
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.260.88

Match total 3.1

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+1.8 puan−7.6 puan

Players

LiverpoolVillarreal
Starting XI · official4-3-34-2-3-1
ScorerBradley Barcola3 goalsSantiago Mouriño2 goals
Most dangerousAlexander Isakexpected goals 3.3Alberto Moleiroexpected goals 3.1
FinisherAlexander Isak+1.7 goals vs expectationAlberto Moleiro−1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperAlissonconceded 2.3 goals more than expectedPéter Gulácsiconceded 2.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsAlexis Mac Allister1 yellowGeorges Mikautadze1 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

LiverpoolVillarreal
RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LIVERPOOL

  • European strength rating 1803 – 1628: Liverpool ahead by 175 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF VILLARREAL

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.