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Premier League25 Oct 17:00 TRTREFEREE · SAM BARROTT

Liverpool FC×Brighton & Hove Albion FC

MATCH FINISHEDLiverpool 2–0 Brighton & Hove AlbionHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 16:59 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Liverpool: 38.0%fair odds 2.63
  • FT X · draw: 28.6%fair odds 3.49
  • FT 2 · Brighton & Hove Albion: 33.4%fair odds 2.99

Double chance

  • 1X · Liverpool doesn't lose:
    66.6%fair odds 1.50
    X2 · Brighton & Hove Albion doesn't lose:
    62.0%fair odds 1.61
    12 · no draw:
    71.4%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.0%fair odds 2.08
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    52.0%fair odds 1.92

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.4%fair odds 1.74
    BTTS No:
    42.6%fair odds 2.35

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.4%fair odds 3.29
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.6%fair odds 1.44

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
  1. Goal: Pascal Grossown goal17'
  2. Goal: Alexander Isakassist Bradley Barcola21'
  3. 45+3'Yellow card: Olivier Boscagli
  4. 73'Yellow card: Costinha

Statistics

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
13Shotsadvantaged: 17
advantaged: 4Shots on target1
advantaged: 4Corners2
%36Possessionadvantaged: %64
13Fouls9
1.28Expected goals (xG)advantaged: 1.31

Shot map

Liverpool

13 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.28

Brighton & Hove Albion

18 shots · 0 goals · xG 1.31

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Liverpool4-2-3-1

  1. 1Alisson Becker
  2. 2Virgil van Dijk
  3. 3Jérémy Jacquet
  4. 4Milos Kerkez
  5. 5Ronald Araujo
  6. 6Florian Wirtz
  7. 7Alexis Mac Allister
  8. 8Ryan Gravenberch
  9. 9Alexander Isak
  10. 10Cody Gakpo
  11. 11Bradley Barcola

Brighton & Hove Albion4-2-3-1

  1. 1Bart Verbruggen
  2. 2Lewis Dunk
  3. 3Luka Vuskovic
  4. 4Olivier Boscagli
  5. 5Ferdi Kadioglu
  6. 6Yasin Ayari
  7. 7Chema Andrés
  8. 8Pascal Gross
  9. 9Charalambos Kostoulas
  10. 10Maxim De Cuyper
  11. 11Diego Gómez

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultLiverpool win%38it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%48most likely: 3 or more goals %52
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%43most likely: Both teams score %57

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.43–1.33 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.07–1.09 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
League table5. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 1L advantaged: 3. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 1L
Last 5 matchesWLWDW2.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWWD2.6 pts/match

Goals

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.431.33

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet3/5advantaged: 4/5
Luck+1.8 puan+2.9 puan

Players

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerAlexander Isak5 goalsPascal Gross3 goals
Most dangerousAlexander Isakexpected goals 3.3Pascal Großexpected goals 1.6
FinisherAlexander Isak+1.7 goals vs expectationCharalampos Kostoulas+0.8 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperAlissonconceded 2.3 goals more than expectedBart Verbruggenconceded 4.1 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsRyan Gravenberch1 yellow, 1 redPascal Struijk1 yellow, 1 red

Cards, corners, referee, workload

LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
RefereeSam Barrott

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LIVERPOOL

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,54 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Liverpool's attack is %7 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Liverpool concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION

  • Brighton & Hove Albion concedes %11 fewer goals than the league average
  • Brighton & Hove Albion's attack is %11 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Liverpool +0,25, Brighton & Hove Albion +0,99

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.