Skip to content
Premier League1 Nov 19:30 TRT

Liverpool FC×Arsenal FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Liverpool: 25.4%fair odds 3.93
  • FT X · draw: 29.4%fair odds 3.40
  • FT 2 · Arsenal: 45.2%fair odds 2.21

Double chance

  • 1X · Liverpool doesn't lose:
    54.8%fair odds 1.82
    X2 · Arsenal doesn't lose:
    74.6%fair odds 1.34
    12 · no draw:
    70.6%fair odds 1.42

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    53.8%fair odds 1.86
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    46.2%fair odds 2.16

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    51.7%fair odds 1.93
    BTTS No:
    48.3%fair odds 2.07

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    33.4%fair odds 2.99
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    66.6%fair odds 1.50

ANALYSES

Form and standings

LiverpoolArsenal
League table4. place 15 pts · 4W 3D 1L advantaged: 2. place 21 pts · 7W 0D 1L
Last 5 matchesWWLWD2.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WWWLW2.4 pts/match

Goals

LiverpoolArsenal
Expected goals1.05advantaged: 1.47

Match total 2.5

Clean sheet3/53/5
Luck+3.4 puan+5.7 puan

Players

LiverpoolArsenal
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerAlexander Isak6 goalsBukayo Saka3 goals
Most dangerousAlexander Isakexpected goals 3.8Bukayo Sakaexpected goals 3.8
FinisherAlexander Isak+2.2 goals vs expectationBukayo Saka−1.1 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperAlissonconceded 2.4 goals more than expectedDavid Rayaconceded 1.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsRyan Gravenberch1 yellow, 1 redChristos Tzolis2 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF LIVERPOOL

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Liverpool concedes %7 fewer goals than the league average
  • Liverpool's attack is %6 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF ARSENAL

  • Arsenal concedes %30 fewer goals than the league average
  • Arsenal's attack is %22 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1611 – 1717: Arsenal ahead by 106 points — effect on expected goals %5Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Liverpool +0,21, Arsenal +0,38

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.