Skip to content
Premier League2 Nov 23:00 TRT

Newcastle United FC×Everton FC

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Newcastle United: 42.4%fair odds 2.36
  • FT X · draw: 28.1%fair odds 3.56
  • FT 2 · Everton: 29.5%fair odds 3.39

Double chance

  • 1X · Newcastle United doesn't lose:
    70.5%fair odds 1.42
    X2 · Everton doesn't lose:
    57.6%fair odds 1.73
    12 · no draw:
    71.9%fair odds 1.39

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    47.2%fair odds 2.12
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    52.8%fair odds 1.89

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74
    BTTS No:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    29.9%fair odds 3.34
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    70.1%fair odds 1.43

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Newcastle UnitedEverton
League tableadvantaged: 8. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L 11. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WLLWL1.2 pts/matchLLDWD1.0 pts/match

Goals

Newcastle UnitedEverton
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.541.25

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+3.2 puan−0.8 puan

Players

Newcastle UnitedEverton
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerHarvey Barnes2 goalsThierno Barry3 goals
Most dangerousYoane Wissaexpected goals 2.4Thierno Barryexpected goals 5.3
Finisher—Thierno Barry−2.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperLukás Hornícekconceded 1.4 goals fewer than expectedJordan Pickfordconceded 0.0 goals fewer than expected
Most cardsJacob Murphy3 yellowHarrison Armstrong3 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity4/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF NEWCASTLE UNITED

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,53 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Everton's attack is %9 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1523 – 1495: Newcastle United ahead by 28 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF EVERTON

  • Newcastle United concedes %11 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Newcastle United -0,52, Everton +0,2

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.