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Süper Lig25 Oct 16:00 TRT

Konyaspor×Gençlerbirliği

MATCH FINISHEDKonyaspor 2–0 GençlerbirliğiHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:15 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Konyaspor: 41.5%fair odds 2.41
  • FT X · draw: 31.6%fair odds 3.17
  • FT 2 · Gençlerbirliği: 26.9%fair odds 3.72

Double chance

  • 1X · Konyaspor doesn't lose:
    73.1%fair odds 1.37
    X2 · Gençlerbirliği doesn't lose:
    58.5%fair odds 1.71
    12 · no draw:
    68.4%fair odds 1.46

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    58.5%fair odds 1.71
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    41.5%fair odds 2.41

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    48.8%fair odds 2.05
    BTTS No:
    51.2%fair odds 1.95

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    36.3%fair odds 2.75
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    63.7%fair odds 1.57

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

KonyasporGençlerbirliği
  1. 35'Yellow card: Ousmane Diabate
  2. Goal: Chidozie Awaziem43'
  3. 45+2'Yellow card: Firatacan Uzum
  4. 55'Yellow card: Adama Traoré
  5. Goal: Chidozie Awaziem56'
  6. Yellow card: Jackson Muleka85'

Statistics

KonyasporGençlerbirliği
advantaged: 16Shots8
advantaged: 7Shots on target2
advantaged: 9Corners3
advantaged: %52Possession%48
12Fouls19
Starting XI and formation

Konyaspor4-2-3-1

  1. 1BahadıR Han Gungordu
  2. 2Chidozie Awaziem
  3. 3Rayyan Baniya
  4. 4Arthur Masuaku
  5. 5Yhoan Andzouana
  6. 6Enis Bardhi
  7. 7Marko Jevtovic
  8. 8Melih Ibrahimoglu
  9. 9Jackson Muleka
  10. 10Jean-Luc Dompé
  11. 11Deniz Turuc

Gençlerbirliği4-1-4-1

  1. 1Irfan Can Egribayat
  2. 2Dimitrios Goutas
  3. 3Metehan Baltaci
  4. 4Ousmane Diabate
  5. 5Thalisson Kelven
  6. 6Firatacan Uzum
  7. 7Sekou Koita
  8. 8Rafael Luís
  9. 9Franco Tongya
  10. 10Salih Ucan
  11. 11Pedro Mendes

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultKonyaspor win%42it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%59it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%51it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.32–1.02 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

KonyasporGençlerbirliği
League table16. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 5L advantaged: 15. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L

League table favours Gençlerbirliği, the model favours Konyaspor. The model does not look at a single section but at the teams' long-term strength; so the two can point to different teams.

Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDDWL1.0 pts/matchLDLLL0.2 pts/match

Goals

KonyasporGençlerbirliği
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.321.02

Match total 2.3

Clean sheetadvantaged: 3/50/5

Players

KonyasporGençlerbirliği
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-1-4-1
ScorerDeniz Turuc1 goalsAdama Traoré1 goals
Most cardsEnis Bardhi1 yellow, 1 redOusmane Diabate3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF KONYASPOR

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,48 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Gençlerbirliği's attack is %18 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Gençlerbirliği concedes %7 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Konyaspor -0,2, Gençlerbirliği -2,2

IN FAVOUR OF GENÇLERBIRLIĞI

  • Konyaspor's attack is %20 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.