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Süper Lig2 Nov 20:00 TRT

Gençlerbirliği×Alanyaspor

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Gençlerbirliği: 32.2%fair odds 3.11
  • FT X · draw: 32.5%fair odds 3.08
  • FT 2 · Alanyaspor: 35.4%fair odds 2.83

Double chance

  • 1X · Gençlerbirliği doesn't lose:
    64.6%fair odds 1.55
    X2 · Alanyaspor doesn't lose:
    67.8%fair odds 1.47
    12 · no draw:
    67.5%fair odds 1.48

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    60.1%fair odds 1.66
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    39.9%fair odds 2.51

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    48.3%fair odds 2.07
    BTTS No:
    51.7%fair odds 1.93

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    37.2%fair odds 2.69
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    62.8%fair odds 1.59

ANALYSES

Form and standings

GençlerbirliğiAlanyaspor
League table16. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 5L advantaged: 11. place 12 pts · 3W 3D 3L
Last 5 matchesLLDLL0.2 pts/matchadvantaged: LLDWD1.0 pts/match

Goals

GençlerbirliğiAlanyaspor
Expected goals1.11advantaged: 1.17

Match total 2.3

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5

Players

GençlerbirliğiAlanyaspor
Last starting XI4-1-4-13-4-2-1
ScorerAdama Traoré1 goalsArda Usluoglu2 goals
Most cardsOusmane Diabate4 yellowFidan Aliti2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GENÇLERBIRLIĞI

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Alanyaspor's attack is %12 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF ALANYASPOR

  • Gençlerbirliği's attack is %18 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Gençlerbirliği concedes %8 more goals than the league average
  • Alanyaspor concedes %6 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Gençlerbirliği -1,6, Alanyaspor -0,6
  • Strength rating 1449 – 1485: Alanyaspor ahead by 36 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.