Skip to content
Premier League25 Oct 17:00 TRT

Hull City AFC×Brentford FC

MATCH FINISHEDHull City 1–1 BrentfordHT 1–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:21 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Hull City: 32.9%fair odds 3.04
  • FT X · draw: 28.8%fair odds 3.48
  • FT 2 · Brentford: 38.3%fair odds 2.61

Double chance

  • 1X · Hull City doesn't lose:
    61.7%fair odds 1.62
    X2 · Brentford doesn't lose:
    67.1%fair odds 1.49
    12 · no draw:
    71.2%fair odds 1.40

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    48.7%fair odds 2.06
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    51.3%fair odds 1.95

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.9%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.1%fair odds 2.32

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    30.7%fair odds 3.26
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    69.3%fair odds 1.44

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Hull CityBrentford
  1. 23'Yellow card: Aaron Hickey
  2. Goal: Oliver McBurniepenalty24'
  3. 63'Goal: Dango Ouattaraassist Igor Thiago

Statistics

Hull CityBrentford
12Shotsadvantaged: 14
2Shots on targetadvantaged: 6
5Cornersadvantaged: 6
%43Possessionadvantaged: %57
10Fouls9
advantaged: 1.94Expected goals (xG)1.71

Shot map

Hull City

12 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.94

Brentford

14 shots · 1 goals · xG 1.71

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Hull City5-4-1

  1. 1Konstantinos Tzolakis
  2. 2John Egan
  3. 3Lucas Herrington
  4. 4Semi Ajayi
  5. 5Ryan Giles
  6. 6Lewie Coyle
  7. 7Regan Slater
  8. 8Tim Iroegbunam
  9. 9Elliot Stroud
  10. 10Mohamed Belloumi
  11. 11Oliver McBurnie

Brentford4-2-3-1

  1. 1Caoimhín Kelleher
  2. 2Kristoffer Ajer
  3. 3Sepp van den Berg
  4. 4Keane Lewis-Potter
  5. 5Michael Kayode
  6. 6Mathias Jensen
  7. 7Aaron Hickey
  8. 8Mamadou Sangare
  9. 9Igor Thiago
  10. 10Kevin Schade
  11. 11Dango Ouattara

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%29most likely: Brentford win %38
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%49most likely: 3 or more goals %51
Both teams to score?Both teams score%57it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.31–1.42 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.61–1.42 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

Hull CityBrentford
League table11. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 2L advantaged: 7. place 10 pts · 2W 4D 1L
Last 5 matchesLDLDD0.6 pts/matchadvantaged: LDWDD1.2 pts/match

Goals

Hull CityBrentford
Expected goals1.31advantaged: 1.42

Match total 2.7

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+2.4 puan−0.3 puan

Players

Hull CityBrentford
Starting XI · official5-4-14-2-3-1
ScorerMohamed Belloumi3 goalsKevin Schade3 goals
Most dangerousOliver McBurnieexpected goals 1.4Thiagoexpected goals 2.9
Finisher—Thiago−1.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperKonstantinos Tzolakisconceded 2.3 goals fewer than expectedCaoimhin Kelleherconceded 0.3 goals more than expected
Most cardsMatt Crooks4 yellowVitaly Janelt5 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF HULL CITY

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,54 per match, away sides 1,25

IN FAVOUR OF BRENTFORD

  • Hull City's attack is %12 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Brentford's attack is %10 above the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1508 – 1546: Brentford ahead by 38 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Hull City -0,77, Brentford -0,4

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.