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Süper Lig25 Oct 19:00 TRT

Göztepe×Çorum FK

MATCH FINISHEDGöztepe 2–0 ÇorumHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 18:05 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Göztepe: 39.3%fair odds 2.54
  • FT X · draw: 26.6%fair odds 3.76
  • FT 2 · Çorum: 34.0%fair odds 2.94

Double chance

  • 1X · Göztepe doesn't lose:
    66.0%fair odds 1.52
    X2 · Çorum doesn't lose:
    60.7%fair odds 1.65
    12 · no draw:
    73.4%fair odds 1.36

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.5%fair odds 2.60
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    61.5%fair odds 1.63

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    64.8%fair odds 1.54
    BTTS No:
    35.2%fair odds 2.84

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.8%fair odds 3.88
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.2%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

GöztepeÇorum
  1. Goal: Alexis Antunes3'
  2. 33'Yellow card: Çaglar Söyüncü
  3. Yellow card: Faustino Anjorin34'
  4. Goal: Juan38'

Statistics

GöztepeÇorum
advantaged: 15Shots13
advantaged: 7Shots on target5
2Cornersadvantaged: 3
%37Possessionadvantaged: %63
21Fouls9
Starting XI and formation

Göztepe3-4-1-2

  1. 1Arda Ozcimen
  2. 2Noah Sonko Sundberg
  3. 3Malcom Bokele
  4. 4Taha Altikardes
  5. 5Novatus Miroshi
  6. 6Rhaldney
  7. 7Alexis Antunes
  8. 8Richard Akonnor
  9. 9Arda Okan Kurtulan
  10. 10Juan
  11. 11André Henrique

Çorum3-4-3

  1. 1Marcos Felipe
  2. 2Çaglar Söyüncü
  3. 3Hrvoje Smolcic
  4. 4Alexandre Penetra
  5. 5Ylber Ramadani
  6. 6Berat Özdemir
  7. 7Mohammed Diomande
  8. 8Gokhan Sazdagi
  9. 9Jesús Ramírez
  10. 10Alexandros Kyziridis
  11. 11Cengiz Ünder

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultGöztepe win%39it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%38most likely: 3 or more goals %62
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%35most likely: Both teams score %65

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.65–1.53 · score: 2–0

Form and standings

GöztepeÇorum
League table13. place 9 pts · 2W 3D 3L advantaged: 9. place 13 pts · 4W 1D 3L
Last 5 matchesWWDDL1.6 pts/matchadvantaged: WWLWW2.4 pts/match

Goals

GöztepeÇorum
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.651.53

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 2/5

Players

GöztepeÇorum
Starting XI · official3-4-1-23-4-3
ScorerJuan5 goalsAlexandros Kyziridis4 goals
Most cardsAlex Matos3 yellowAlexandros Kyziridis1 yellow, 1 red

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GÖZTEPE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,48 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Çorum concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1549 – 1531: Göztepe ahead by 19 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF ÇORUM

  • Çorum's attack is %29 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Göztepe +0,6, Çorum +2,0

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.