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Süper Lig24 Oct 16:00 TRT

Gaziantep FK×Erzurum BB

MATCH FINISHEDGaziantep 1–3 Erzurum BBHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 15:55 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Gaziantep: 39.1%fair odds 2.56
  • FT X · draw: 31.5%fair odds 3.18
  • FT 2 · Erzurum BB: 29.4%fair odds 3.40

Double chance

  • 1X · Gaziantep doesn't lose:
    70.6%fair odds 1.42
    X2 · Erzurum BB doesn't lose:
    60.9%fair odds 1.64
    12 · no draw:
    68.5%fair odds 1.46

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    57.3%fair odds 1.74
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    42.7%fair odds 2.34

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    50.2%fair odds 1.99
    BTTS No:
    49.8%fair odds 2.01

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    35.6%fair odds 2.81
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    64.4%fair odds 1.55

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

GaziantepErzurum BB
  1. Yellow card: Myenty Abena41'
  2. 52'Goal: Miguel Cardoso
  3. 64'Goal: Amar Gerxhaliu
  4. Goal: Orhan Ovacikliown goal70'
  5. Yellow card: Kacper Kozlowski86'
  6. 90+4'Goal: Guram Giorbelidze

Statistics

GaziantepErzurum BB
advantaged: 21Shots10
advantaged: 7Shots on target3
advantaged: 5Corners2
advantaged: %62Possession%38
10Fouls7
Starting XI and formation

Gaziantep4-1-4-1

  1. 1Kacper Tobiasz
  2. 2Abakar Sylla
  3. 3Myenty Abena
  4. 4Juninho Bacuna
  5. 5Kerim Çalhanoglu
  6. 6Luis Pérez
  7. 7Alexandru Maxim
  8. 8Drissa Camara
  9. 9Kacper Kozlowski
  10. 10Deian Sorescu
  11. 11Trivante Stewart

Erzurum BB5-3-2

  1. 1Ertugrul Taskiran
  2. 2Mustafa Yumlu
  3. 3Nihad Mujakic
  4. 4Amar Gerxhaliu
  5. 5Guram Giorbelidze
  6. 6Orhan Ovacikli
  7. 7Elisha Owusu
  8. 8Martín Rodríguez
  9. 9Brandon Baiye
  10. 10Miguel Cardoso
  11. 11Eren Tozlu

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultErzurum BB win%29most likely: Gaziantep win %39
3+ goals?3 or more goals%43most likely: 2 or fewer goals %57
Both teams to score?Both teams score%50it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.29–1.09 · score: 1–3

Form and standings

GaziantepErzurum BB
League table14. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 4L advantaged: 11. place 11 pts · 3W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesLLLDW0.8 pts/matchadvantaged: WDWLW2.0 pts/match

Goals

GaziantepErzurum BB
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.291.09

Match total 2.4

Clean sheet1/5advantaged: 4/5

Players

GaziantepErzurum BB
Starting XI · official4-1-4-15-3-2
ScorerDeian Sorescu2 goalsEren Tozlu3 goals
Most cardsJuninho Bacuna1 yellow, 1 redElisha Owusu2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GAZIANTEP

  • Erzurum BB's attack is %23 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21

IN FAVOUR OF ERZURUM BB

  • Gaziantep concedes %15 more goals than the league average
  • Gaziantep's attack is %9 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1442 – 1495: Erzurum BB ahead by 53 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Gaziantep -0,8, Erzurum BB +0,2

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.