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Süper Lig26 Oct 21:30 TRT

Galatasaray×Fenerbahçe

MATCH FINISHEDGalatasaray 2–1 FenerbahçeHT 2–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (26 Oct 21:01 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Galatasaray: 38.6%fair odds 2.59
  • FT X · draw: 25.4%fair odds 3.94
  • FT 2 · Fenerbahçe: 36.1%fair odds 2.77

Double chance

  • 1X · Galatasaray doesn't lose:
    63.9%fair odds 1.56
    X2 · Fenerbahçe doesn't lose:
    61.4%fair odds 1.63
    12 · no draw:
    74.6%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    33.4%fair odds 3.00
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    66.6%fair odds 1.50

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    68.7%fair odds 1.46
    BTTS No:
    31.3%fair odds 3.19

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    23.2%fair odds 4.30
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.8%fair odds 1.30

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
  1. 10'Yellow card: Irfan Can Kahveci
  2. 11'Yellow card: Milan Skriniar
  3. Yellow card: Davinson Sánchez19'
  4. Goal: Victor Osimhen29'
  5. 31'Yellow card: N'Golo Kanté
  6. Goal: Victor Osimhen44'
  7. 54'Yellow card: Nélson Semedo
  8. 62'Goal: Irfan Can Kahveci
  9. Yellow card: Rafael Leão89'
  10. 90+1'Yellow card: Archie Brown

Statistics

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
advantaged: 23Shots4
advantaged: 8Shots on target3
advantaged: 10Corners4
advantaged: %62Possession%38
10Fouls18
Starting XI and formation

Galatasaray4-2-3-1

  1. 1Ugurcan Çakir
  2. 2Abdülkerim Bardakçi
  3. 3Davinson Sánchez
  4. 4Ismail Jakobs
  5. 5Roland Sallai
  6. 6Alexey Batrakov
  7. 7Mario Lemina
  8. 8Lucas Torreira
  9. 9Victor Osimhen
  10. 10Baris Alper Yilmaz
  11. 11Yunus Akgün

Fenerbahçe4-2-3-1

  1. 1Ederson
  2. 2Archie Brown
  3. 3Milan Skriniar
  4. 4Munir Mercan
  5. 5Nélson Semedo
  6. 6Irfan Can Kahveci
  7. 7N'Golo Kanté
  8. 8Matteo Guendouzi
  9. 9Romelu Lukaku
  10. 10Oguz Aydin
  11. 11Mason Greenwood

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultGalatasaray win%39it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%67it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%69it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.75–1.69 · score: 2–1

Form and standings

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
League tableadvantaged: 3. place 19 pts · 6W 1D 1L 5. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 2L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWLWW2.4 pts/matchWWWDL2.0 pts/match

Goals

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.751.69

Match total 3.4

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 4/5

Players

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
Starting XI · official4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerVictor Osimhen6 goalsVedat Muriqi7 goals
Most cardsLesley Ugochukwu1 redOguz Aydin2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GALATASARAY

  • Galatasaray's attack is %45 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,2
  • Galatasaray concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1737 – 1724: Galatasaray ahead by 12 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF FENERBAHÇE

  • Fenerbahçe's attack is %62 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Fenerbahçe concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Galatasaray +0,2, Fenerbahçe +2,6

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.