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Süper Lig26 Oct 21:30 TRT

Galatasaray×Fenerbahçe

MATCH FINISHEDGalatasaray 2–1 FenerbahçeHT 2–0

The match is over. There is no pre-kick-off record for this match; the analysis shown was calculated after the match and may be influenced by the result.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Galatasaray: 38.6%fair odds 2.59
  • FT X · draw: 25.4%fair odds 3.94
  • FT 2 · Fenerbahçe: 36.1%fair odds 2.77

Double chance

  • 1X · Galatasaray doesn't lose:
    63.9%fair odds 1.56
    X2 · Fenerbahçe doesn't lose:
    61.4%fair odds 1.63
    12 · no draw:
    74.6%fair odds 1.34

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    33.4%fair odds 3.00
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    66.6%fair odds 1.50

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    68.7%fair odds 1.46
    BTTS No:
    31.3%fair odds 3.19

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    23.2%fair odds 4.30
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.8%fair odds 1.30

ANALYSES

Form and standings

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
League tableadvantaged: 1. place 22 pts · 7W 1D 1L 5. place 16 pts · 5W 1D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: WWWLW2.4 pts/matchLWWWD2.0 pts/match

Goals

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.751.69

Match total 3.4

Clean sheet2/5advantaged: 4/5

Players

GalatasarayFenerbahçe
Last starting XI4-2-3-14-2-3-1
ScorerVictor Osimhen6 goalsVedat Muriqi7 goals
Most cardsLesley Ugochukwu1 redOguz Aydin2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF GALATASARAY

  • Galatasaray's attack is %45 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,2
  • Galatasaray concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1737 – 1724: Galatasaray ahead by 12 points — effect on expected goals %1Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF FENERBAHÇE

  • Fenerbahçe's attack is %62 above the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Fenerbahçe concedes %15 fewer goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Galatasaray +0,2, Fenerbahçe +2,6

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.