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Şampiyonlar Ligi14 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · CHRIS KAVANAGH

FK Shakhtar Donetsk×PAE AEK

MATCH FINISHEDFK Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 PAE AEKHT 1–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (14 Oct 21:46 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · FK Shakhtar Donetsk: 59.3%fair odds 1.69
  • FT X · draw: 21.6%fair odds 4.63
  • FT 2 · PAE AEK: 19.1%fair odds 5.24

Double chance

  • 1X · FK Shakhtar Donetsk doesn't lose:
    80.9%fair odds 1.24
    X2 · PAE AEK doesn't lose:
    40.7%fair odds 2.46
    12 · no draw:
    78.4%fair odds 1.28

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    43.0%fair odds 2.32
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.0%fair odds 1.76

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    54.7%fair odds 1.83
    BTTS No:
    45.3%fair odds 2.21

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    26.3%fair odds 3.80
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    73.7%fair odds 1.36

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultFK Shakhtar Donetsk win%59it was the most likely one
3+ goals?3 or more goals%57it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?Both teams score%55it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.96–1.01 · score: 3–1

Form and standings

FK Shakhtar DonetskPAE AEK
League table23. place 1 pts · 0W 1D 0L advantaged: 17. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 0L
Last 5 matchesD1.0 pts/matchadvantaged: W3.0 pts/match

Goals

FK Shakhtar DonetskPAE AEK
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.961.01

Match total 3.0

Clean sheet0/1advantaged: 1/1

Players

FK Shakhtar DonetskPAE AEK
Starting XI · official4-1-4-14-4-2
ScorerGleiker Mendoza1 goalsRazvan Marin1 goals
Most cardsDmytro Kryskiv1 yellowLuka Jovic1 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

FK Shakhtar DonetskPAE AEK
RefereeChris Kavanagh

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF FK SHAKHTAR DONETSK

  • European strength rating 1532 – 1430: FK Shakhtar Donetsk ahead by 102 pointsStrength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF PAE AEK

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.