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Şampiyonlar Ligi20 Oct 22:00 TRTREFEREE · DANIEL SIEBERT

FC Porto×PSV

MATCH FINISHEDPorto 0–1 PSVHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (20 Oct 21:46 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Porto: 45.0%fair odds 2.22
  • FT X · draw: 24.7%fair odds 4.04
  • FT 2 · PSV: 30.2%fair odds 3.31

Double chance

  • 1X · Porto doesn't lose:
    69.8%fair odds 1.43
    X2 · PSV doesn't lose:
    55.0%fair odds 1.82
    12 · no draw:
    75.3%fair odds 1.33

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    46.2%fair odds 2.17
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    53.8%fair odds 1.86

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    56.7%fair odds 1.76
    BTTS No:
    43.3%fair odds 2.31

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.9%fair odds 3.58
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.1%fair odds 1.39

ANALYSES

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultPSV win%30most likely: Porto win %45
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%46most likely: 3 or more goals %54
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%43most likely: Both teams score %57

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.58–1.25 · score: 0–1

Form and standings

PortoPSV
League table31. place 0 pts · 0W 0D 2L advantaged: 27. place 1 pts · 0W 1D 1L
Last 5 matchesLL0.0 pts/matchadvantaged: LDLLL0.2 pts/match

Goals

PortoPSV
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.581.25

Match total 2.8

Clean sheet0/20/5

Players

PortoPSV
Starting XI · official4-3-34-2-3-1
ScorerGabri Veiga1 goalsSergiño Dest1 goals
Most cardsAlan Varela1 yellowArmando Obispo2 yellow

Cards, corners, referee, workload

PortoPSV
RefereeDaniel Siebert

Not enough match data for the league trend

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF PORTO

  • Home side: in the Champions League the home side's goal expectation is about %28 higher

IN FAVOUR OF PSV

No factor stands out clearly from the league average.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.