Skip to content
Bundesliga24 Oct 16:30 TRT

FC Augsburg×1. FC Union Berlin

MATCH FINISHEDAugsburg 1–1 Union BerlinHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 15:56 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Augsburg: 51.3%fair odds 1.95
  • FT X · draw: 24.0%fair odds 4.17
  • FT 2 · Union Berlin: 24.8%fair odds 4.04

Double chance

  • 1X · Augsburg doesn't lose:
    75.2%fair odds 1.33
    X2 · Union Berlin doesn't lose:
    48.7%fair odds 2.05
    12 · no draw:
    76.0%fair odds 1.32

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    34.3%fair odds 2.92
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    65.7%fair odds 1.52

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    65.9%fair odds 1.52
    BTTS No:
    34.1%fair odds 2.93

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    23.4%fair odds 4.28
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    76.6%fair odds 1.31

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

AugsburgUnion Berlin
  1. 19'Red card: Felix Uduokhai
  2. 31'Yellow card: Janik Haberer
  3. 36'Yellow card: Leopold Querfeld
  4. Red card: Juma Bah63'
  5. Goal: Han-Noah Massengoassist Fabian Rieder71'
  6. 74'Goal: Janik Haberer
  7. 77'Yellow card: Mekhi Anthony Gray

Statistics

AugsburgUnion Berlin
advantaged: 25Shots6
advantaged: 5Shots on target1
advantaged: 5Corners1
advantaged: %66Possession%34
10Fouls9
advantaged: 2.02Expected goals (xG)0.83

Shot map

Augsburg

25 shots · 1 goals · xG 2.02

Union Berlin

6 shots · 1 goals · xG 0.83

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Augsburg3-4-2-1

  1. 1Finn Dahmen
  2. 2Chrislain Matsima
  3. 3Calvin Brackelmann
  4. 4Juma Bah
  5. 5Fabian Rieder
  6. 6Han-Noah Massengo
  7. 7Hennes Behrens
  8. 8Marius Wolf
  9. 9Michael Gregoritsch
  10. 10Arijon Ibrahimovic
  11. 11Anton Kade

Union Berlin4-2-3-1

  1. 1Frederik Ronnow
  2. 2Felix Uduokhai
  3. 3Zeno Van Den Bosch
  4. 4Tom Rothe
  5. 5Janik Haberer
  6. 6Michel Aebischer
  7. 7Rani Khedira
  8. 8András Schäfer
  9. 9Tim Skarke
  10. 10Livan Burcu
  11. 11Jeong Woo-Yeong

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultDraw%24most likely: Augsburg win %51
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%34most likely: 3 or more goals %66
Both teams to score?Both teams score%66it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 2.02–1.37 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.82–0.75 · score: 1–1

Form and standings

AugsburgUnion Berlin
League tableadvantaged: 10. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 2L 17. place 5 pts · 1W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LDLDW1.0 pts/matchDWLLL0.8 pts/match

Goals

AugsburgUnion Berlin
Expected goalsadvantaged: 2.021.37

Match total 3.4

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 2/5
Luck+2.0 puan−0.7 puan

Players

AugsburgUnion Berlin
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerMichael Gregoritsch4 goalsTim Skarke2 goals
Most dangerousMichael Gregoritschexpected goals 2.9Tim Skarkeexpected goals 1.7
FinisherMichael Gregoritsch+0.8 goals vs expectation—
GoalkeeperFinn Dahmenconceded 1.7 goals fewer than expectedFrederik Rönnowconceded 0.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsChrislain Matsima2 yellowFelix Uduokhai3 yellow

Head to head

Recent matchesLoading…

Loading…

Model and reliability

Clarity5/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF AUGSBURG

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,83 per match, away sides 1,48
  • Union Berlin's attack is %16 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Union Berlin concedes %5 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1487 – 1433: Augsburg ahead by 54 points — effect on expected goals %3Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Augsburg -1,31, Union Berlin -1,44

IN FAVOUR OF UNION BERLIN

  • Augsburg concedes %13 more goals than the league average

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.