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Süper Lig24 Oct 13:30 TRT

Eyüpspor×Kasımpaşa

MATCH FINISHEDEyüpspor 0–1 KasımpaşaHT 0–1

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (24 Oct 13:10 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Eyüpspor: 24.0%fair odds 4.17
  • FT X · draw: 31.8%fair odds 3.15
  • FT 2 · Kasımpaşa: 44.2%fair odds 2.26

Double chance

  • 1X · Eyüpspor doesn't lose:
    55.8%fair odds 1.79
    X2 · Kasımpaşa doesn't lose:
    76.0%fair odds 1.32
    12 · no draw:
    68.2%fair odds 1.47

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    60.7%fair odds 1.65
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    39.3%fair odds 2.55

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    46.4%fair odds 2.16
    BTTS No:
    53.6%fair odds 1.86

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    37.6%fair odds 2.66
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    62.4%fair odds 1.60

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

EyüpsporKasımpaşa
  1. 29'Yellow card: Kerem Demirbay
  2. 37'Goal: Adrian Benedyczak
  3. 87'Yellow card: Ali Yavuz Kol

Statistics

EyüpsporKasımpaşa
advantaged: 12Shots10
4Shots on target4
advantaged: 6Corners5
advantaged: %52Possession%48
12Fouls21
Starting XI and formation

Eyüpspor4-1-4-1

  1. 1Emre Bilgin
  2. 2Zak Jules
  3. 3Jawad El Yamiq
  4. 4Chandrel Géraud Massanga
  5. 5Simone Giordano
  6. 6Talha Ülvan
  7. 7Tashkin Ilter
  8. 8David Costa
  9. 9Lenny Pintor
  10. 10Konrad Michalak
  11. 11Yusuf Barasi

Kasımpaşa4-2-3-1

  1. 1Andreas Gianniotis
  2. 2Matei Ilie
  3. 3Adem Arous
  4. 4Ayberk Karapo
  5. 5Cláudio Winck
  6. 6Haris Hajradinovic
  7. 7Kerem Demirbay
  8. 8Elson Mendes Da Silva
  9. 9Adrian Benedyczak
  10. 10Ali Yavuz Kol
  11. 11Jesurun Rak-Sakyi

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultKasımpaşa win%44it was the most likely one
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%61it was the most likely one
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%54it was the most likely one

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 0.92–1.33 · score: 0–1

Form and standings

EyüpsporKasımpaşa
League table18. place 3 pts · 1W 0D 7L advantaged: 8. place 13 pts · 3W 4D 1L
Last 5 matchesLLLLL0.0 pts/matchadvantaged: WLDWD1.6 pts/match

Goals

EyüpsporKasımpaşa
Expected goals0.92advantaged: 1.33

Match total 2.3

Clean sheet0/5advantaged: 1/5

Players

EyüpsporKasımpaşa
Starting XI · official4-1-4-14-2-3-1
ScorerAhmed Abdullahi1 goalsAdrian Benedyczak5 goals
Most cardsDavid Costa2 yellow, 1 redCláudio Winck3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF EYÜPSPOR

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,49 per match, away sides 1,21
  • Kasımpaşa's attack is %14 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)

IN FAVOUR OF KASIMPAŞA

  • Eyüpspor's attack is %30 below the league average (goals scored and conceded, recent matches weighted more)
  • Eyüpspor concedes %20 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match goal difference: Eyüpspor -3,8, Kasımpaşa +0,4
  • Strength rating 1407 – 1492: Kasımpaşa ahead by 85 points — effect on expected goals %4Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.