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Bundesliga1 Nov 19:30 TRT

Eintracht Frankfurt×Hamburger SV

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt: 52.6%fair odds 1.90
  • FT X · draw: 24.7%fair odds 4.05
  • FT 2 · Hamburger SV: 22.7%fair odds 4.41

Double chance

  • 1X · Eintracht Frankfurt doesn't lose:
    77.3%fair odds 1.29
    X2 · Hamburger SV doesn't lose:
    47.4%fair odds 2.11
    12 · no draw:
    75.3%fair odds 1.33

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    38.9%fair odds 2.57
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    61.1%fair odds 1.64

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.7%fair odds 1.62
    BTTS No:
    38.3%fair odds 2.61

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    25.7%fair odds 3.90
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    74.3%fair odds 1.35

ANALYSES

Form and standings

Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
League table14. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L advantaged: 11. place 9 pts · 3W 0D 4L

Form favours Hamburger SV, the model favours Eintracht Frankfurt. In the 733 matches that split like this (top-5 leagues, 2020–2026) the model's side won 53%, the form's side won 21%; 26% ended in a draw.

Last 5 matchesLWLDW1.4 pts/matchadvantaged: LWWWL1.8 pts/match

Goals

Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.931.22

Match total 3.2

Clean sheet1/51/5
Luck+0.3 puan+2.8 puan

Players

Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SV
Last starting XI4-4-23-5-2
ScorerYounes Ebnoutalib5 goalsMiro Muheim2 goals
Most dangerousYounes Ebnoutalibexpected goals 3.8Yussuf Poulsenexpected goals 2.3
FinisherYounes Ebnoutalib+1.2 goals vs expectationYussuf Poulsen−0.3 goals vs expectation
GoalkeeperNoah Atuboluconceded 1.3 goals more than expectedDaniel Heuer Fernandesconceded 1.9 goals more than expected
Most cardsRaphael Onyedika4 yellowAlbert Sambi Lokonga2 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity6/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.588 / 0.648

Last 8 months, 160 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.440 / 0.447

Last 8 months, 160 matches

Both Teams to Score?did not beat the league average 0.464 / 0.462

Last 8 months, 160 matches · yalnızca bilgi için

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF EINTRACHT FRANKFURT

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,84 per match, away sides 1,46
  • Hamburger SV's attack is %20 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Hamburger SV concedes %9 more goals than the league average
  • Strength rating 1502 – 1458: Eintracht Frankfurt ahead by 44 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.

IN FAVOUR OF HAMBURGER SV

  • Eintracht Frankfurt's attack is %7 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Eintracht Frankfurt concedes %7 more goals than the league average
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Eintracht Frankfurt -0,86, Hamburger SV -0,67

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.