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Premier League25 Oct 17:00 TRT

Crystal Palace FC×Newcastle United FC

MATCH FINISHEDCrystal Palace 0–2 Newcastle UnitedHT 0–0

Maç bitti. The analysis below was calculated before the match (25 Oct 14:19 TRT); it does not change during or after the match.

ALL PROBABILITIES

MODEL CALCULATION · NOT BETTING ADVICE

Percentage: model probability · number next to it: fair odds

Match result

  • FT 1 · Crystal Palace: 39.2%fair odds 2.55
  • FT X · draw: 27.2%fair odds 3.68
  • FT 2 · Newcastle United: 33.7%fair odds 2.97

Double chance

  • 1X · Crystal Palace doesn't lose:
    66.3%fair odds 1.51
    X2 · Newcastle United doesn't lose:
    60.8%fair odds 1.64
    12 · no draw:
    72.8%fair odds 1.37

Under / Over (total goals)

  • 2.5
    Under 2.5 · at most 2 goals:
    42.4%fair odds 2.36
    Over 2.5 · 3+ goals:
    57.6%fair odds 1.74

Both teams to scoreboth teams score

  • BTTS Yes · both teams score:
    61.6%fair odds 1.62
    BTTS No:
    38.4%fair odds 2.61

First-half goals

  • 0.5
    HT no goals · Under 0.5:
    27.5%fair odds 3.64
    HT 1+ goals · Over 0.5:
    72.5%fair odds 1.38

ANALYSES

Match summary

Goals and cards

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
  1. 36'Yellow card: Nico González
  2. 45+1'Yellow card: Fabian Schär
  3. 47'Goal: William Osulaassist Jacob Murphy
  4. 58'Goal: Harvey Barnesassist Amar Dedic
  5. Yellow card: Yéremy Pino75'
  6. 78'Yellow card: Lewis Hall
  7. Yellow card: Anan Khalaili79'
  8. Yellow card: Jaydee Canvot90+3'

Statistics

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
advantaged: 17Shots10
advantaged: 4Shots on target2
advantaged: 7Corners4
advantaged: %53Possession%47
12Fouls10
advantaged: 2.20Expected goals (xG)1.30

Shot map

Crystal Palace

17 shots · 0 goals · xG 2.20

Newcastle United

10 shots · 2 goals · xG 1.30

Filled circle = goal, empty circle = shot that did not score; circle size = the shot's xG. Goal at the top.

Starting XI and formation

Crystal Palace3-4-2-1

  1. 1Walter Benítez
  2. 2Axel Disasi
  3. 3Jaydee Canvot
  4. 4Chris Richards
  5. 5Daichi Kamada
  6. 6Adam Wharton
  7. 7Tyrick Mitchell
  8. 8Anan Khalaili
  9. 9Jean-Philippe Mateta
  10. 10Yéremy Pino
  11. 11Dwight McNeil

Newcastle United4-2-3-1

  1. 1Lukás Hornícek
  2. 2Dan Burn
  3. 3Fabian Schär
  4. 4Lewis Hall
  5. 5Amar Dedic
  6. 6Joe Willock
  7. 7Joelinton
  8. 8Nico González
  9. 9William Osula
  10. 10Harvey Barnes
  11. 11Jacob Murphy

What did the model say, what happened?

Match resultNewcastle United win%34most likely: Crystal Palace win %39
3+ goals?2 or fewer goals%42most likely: 3 or more goals %58
Both teams to score?At least one team doesn't score%38most likely: Both teams score %62

Expected goals (model, pre-match): 1.56–1.44 · expected goals of the chances created in the match: 1.69–1.08 · score: 0–2

Form and standings

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
League table16. place 7 pts · 2W 1D 4L advantaged: 14. place 8 pts · 2W 2D 3L
Last 5 matchesadvantaged: LWDLW1.4 pts/matchLLWLD0.8 pts/match

Goals

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
Expected goalsadvantaged: 1.561.44

Match total 3.0

Clean sheetadvantaged: 1/50/5
Luck+0.4 puan+1.1 puan

Players

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
Starting XI · official3-4-2-14-2-3-1
ScorerTyrick Mitchell2 goalsAnthony Elanga2 goals
Most dangerousEddie Nketiahexpected goals 1.1Yoane Wissaexpected goals 2.5
Finisher——
GoalkeeperWalter Benítezconceded 2.0 goals fewer than expectedLukás Hornícekconceded 0.7 goals more than expected
Most cardsAxel Disasi1 redJacob Murphy3 yellow

Head to head

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Model and reliability

Clarity2/10

Favourite = the side with the highest chance of winning. It does not mean they will win.

Match Resultmore accurate than the league average 0.619 / 0.655

Last 8 months, 183 matches

3+ Total Goals?more accurate than the league average 0.490 / 0.495

Last 8 months, 183 matches

Both Teams to Score?more accurate than the league average 0.496 / 0.497

Last 8 months, 183 matches

WHAT FACTORS MAKE UP THE PERCENTAGES

IN FAVOUR OF CRYSTAL PALACE

  • Home side: in this league home sides score 1,54 per match, away sides 1,25
  • Newcastle United concedes %11 more goals than the league average

IN FAVOUR OF NEWCASTLE UNITED

  • Crystal Palace concedes %13 more goals than the league average
  • Crystal Palace's attack is %5 below the league average (chance quality and goals, recent matches weighted more)
  • Strength rating 1476 – 1510: Newcastle United ahead by 34 points — effect on expected goals %2Strength rating = a score showing how strong a team is (starts at 1500). The gap between the two teams is what matters.
  • Last 5 matches, per match expected-goal difference: Crystal Palace -0,94, Newcastle United -0,55

The bar is the size of the factor's effect on the goal expectation.

The model uses only this data; injuries, line-ups and motivation do not enter the model — those are in the “AI preview” section.

Pick lists by probability

We split the match's outcomes into three groups: most likely, medium probability and open to surprises. Not betting advice. SEE THE PLANS

AI preview

Summary of injuries, tactics and scenarios — Open to Pro members.

Open to members

Home/away record, fatigue, chance gap, cards and corners, goal minutes, comparison with betting odds and more Open to Plus members.

This page contains data-driven analysis. It is not betting advice.